FXUS63 KLBF 232324 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly west of Highway 83. Large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible. - Strong to severe storms will remain possible Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. The area of concern will remain mainly west of Highway 83. - Periodic disturbances will move through northwest flow aloft, leading to daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Late this afternoon and tonight...an upper ridge will remain centered over New Mexico, with a west-northwest flow aloft across the Northern and Central Plains. A disturbance currently located over eastern WY will track southeast across southwest SD and the Nebr. panhandle late this afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms developing. With SBCAPEs exceeding 3500 J/kg west of Highway 61 and effective bulk shear near 40kts, a few strong storms are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly west of Highway 83. The severe threat would be large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain, with the 18Z KLBF sounding indicating 1.57 inches PWAT. Elevated showers and a few storms will persist this afternoon into tonight across the east, mainly east of Highway 183. This will be where weak WAA exist near 700mb as a weak 700mb trough progresses eastward and the low level jet increases after midnight. Monday and Monday night...A surface trough is forecast to extend south to north along the eastern panhandle to along the leeside of the Black Hills by mid afternoon. Strong afternoon heating across the west with highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Isolated storms are shown to develop along this surface trough and move east and southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe with large hail with any isolated discrete storms into early evening. With time, storms may merge with cold pools, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall becoming the primary severe threat into the evening hours. The area of greater concern will be for areas west of Valentine through Hayes Center, where SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms. Instability will be adequate to around 2500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40kts. Storms will gradually diminish and exit southeastern areas after midnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday, the potential again for strong to severe storms. A warm front is shown to extend across the southern panhandle to near the NE/KS border. Moderate instability and 35KT of effective shear will be present to support scattered storms mainly south of HIghway 2. A Slight Risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC for areas generally south of I80. The active pattern continues Wednesday through Sunday, as an upper ridge center persists across AZ and NM. This will place the region in northwest flow aloft, favorable for evening and overnight convection. High temperatures will range mostly in the low to mid 80s Wednesday through Thursday, then heating into the low 90s western Sandhills and southwest Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska tonight and tomorrow. While showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of western Nebraska, ceilings and visibility remain VFR at this time. Overnight, expect a low level jet to generate additional thunderstorms across portions of north central Nebraska. At this time, LLWS concerns are not expected at KLBF or KVTN, however, winds around 2,000 ft agl may reach near or slightly above 30 knots late this evening as the low level jet begins in earnest. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Richie