FXUS64 KLCH 091708
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower activity is expected to decrease today and tomorrow as 
  an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. 

- A weakness redevelops over the weekend along with deeper
  tropical like moisture helping to increase convection. 

- Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent
  temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat 
  risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Current conditions remain fairly average and humid, with temps in 
the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints a few degrees shy of there. 

At the surface, the high pressure over the area / SE will maintain 
light southerly to calm flow for the next several days. Aloft, the 
upper weakness will continue to break down as the ridges off the CA 
and FL coasts both shift further into the CONUS. While this will not 
completely inhibit our run of the mill seabreeze / diurnally driven 
showers and storms, it will help in stopping it from being as 
widespread as in days previous. 

Going into the weekend, we will see a return in convection as the 
upper ridge loses its influence over the area, allowing for a weak 
trough and frontal boundary to move southward. Tropical moisture 
will become focused across the Gulf Coast region, with PWATs nearing 
or exceeding the 90th percentile. Those things in conjunction with 
diurnal processes will allow for scattered to numerous showers and 
storms from this weekend into the end of this forecast cycle.  

Albeit warm, temperatures over the next few days will only be a few 
degrees above their climatological averages. With the expected rain 
and cloud cover this weekend, MaxTs will likely be kept in check. 
The aforementioned boundary is a front only by name, as it will make 
no noticeable difference to temps or dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Isolated showers and storms will continue along/south of the I-10
corridor through the afternoon however, coverage is not expected
to expand quite as much as the last few days. A scattered to
broken cloud deck around 3000ft will continue to stream across the
region this afternoon, causing some sites to waffle between VFR
and MVFR on occasion. This evening into tomorrow, VFR conditions 
and light winds prevail. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Surface high pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into 
the northern Gulf through the week. This will keep a light south to 
southwest flow and low seas in place. Isolated to widely scattered 
showers and storms will be possible each day, with coverage 
increasing a bit by the late weekend into early next week as another 
weakness develops aloft. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered 
storms will be possible in the afternoon to early evening along the 
sea breeze today and tomorrow, however coverage will be limited as 
an upper ridge builds in. Higher rain chances return this weekend.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...17