FXUS64 KLCH 091721
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower activity is expected to decrease today and tomorrow as 
  an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. 

- A weakness redeveloping over the weekend, along with deeper
  tropical like moisture and a weak surface boundary, will help to
  increase convection Saturday into next week.

- Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent
  temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat 
  risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Another seasonal start to the day has unfolded with a few isolated 
showers and storms ongoing across coastal south LA. Surface high 
pressure is again providing a light and variable flow overhead, 
while aloft weak ridging is slowly taking shape as two ridges merge 
overhead. As ridging takes shape overhead today it will keep 
somewhat of a cap on afternoon convection but won't completely 
inhibit storms from forming along the seabreeze this afternoon. 
Therefore, we will likely see some slight expansion on coverage of 
what's already ongoing but widespread activity is unlikely today. 
Otherwise, it looks like another hot and humid afternoon with highs 
reaching into the low to mid 90s.

Weak ridging becomes better established overhead by tomorrow, 
bringing about another mostly dry and hot day for the end of the 
work week. Like today, morning showers along the coast can be 
expected, with minimal expansion in coverage along the seabreeze 
through peak heating hours in the afternoon.  

Moving into the weekend, upper ridging begins to lose its hold on 
the forecast area once again as the center of the ridge shifts off 
towards the Rockies. At the same time, a weak shortwave dives out of 
the northern Plains and into the Midwest giving a weak frontal 
boundary a push south across the eastern CONUS. This, together with 
the seabreeze/diurnal heating, will result in more widespread 
afternoon activity each day from Saturday into early next week. The 
addition of the approaching front will cause POPs to ramp up even 
further from Sun through Tues as it provides additional support for 
convection, with POPs then tapering back down slightly for the later 
half of the week. The increase in convection early next week will 
tamper afternoon high temps down into the mid to upper 80s on Mon 
and Tues, which is around 5 degrees below seasonal norms. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Isolated showers and storms will continue along/south of the I-10
corridor through the afternoon however, coverage is not expected
to expand quite as much as the last few days. A scattered to
broken cloud deck around 3000ft will continue to stream across the
region this afternoon, causing some sites to waffle between VFR
and MVFR on occasion. This evening into tomorrow, VFR conditions 
and light winds prevail. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Surface high pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into 
the northern Gulf through the week. This will keep a light south to 
southwest flow and low seas in place. Isolated to widely scattered 
shower and storms will be possible each day, with coverage 
increasing a bit by the late weekend into early next week as another 
weakness develops aloft. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered 
storms are expected today along the sea breeze, however coverage 
will decrease Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds in. 
Higher rain chances return this weekendinto early next week.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17