FXUS64 KLCH 150052 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 752 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday with a Red Flag Watch for Friday and likely for Saturday as well. - Record to near record heat is forecast across central and south central Louisiana today and Thursday. - High winds Friday and Saturday are likely to cause to marine and onshore wind advisories. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The upper-level ridge that has dominated our weather pattern is finally weakening and being pushed to the east as an upper-level low propagates in from the desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure on the east coast continues to cause southerly winds that originate from the Gulf. With the warm and moist air from the Gulf, we will have another warmer-than-average night with lows barely dropping into the 60s area-wide. With a dew point depression of only 1 to 2 degrees along with calm winds, more dense fog could form tonight across the region. The fog will mainly be radiation fog and should quickly clear up after sunrise but with our southern winds some marine influence could keep some pockets of fog along the coast later in the morning. Thursday will mostly be a repeat of today, but with slightly lower temperatures as the ridge continues to weaken overhead. On Friday, an approaching cold front will be pushed across the region as the upper-level low mentioned above moves across the central CONUS. This will be a dry front with low-end precipitation chances, as PoPs stay below 20% north of I-10 and around 30 to 40% closer to the coast. The main impact from this front will be the advection of a cool, dry continental air mass into the region. There are two main weather concerns with this front: the first will be wind speeds, with sustained winds approaching 20 mph along and south of the I-10 corridor and gusts up to 30 mph. The second major concern will be fire weather. With the ongoing drought conditions, we have KBDI values well into the 700s, with 10- and 100-hour fuel moisture values hovering around 25%. Subsidence behind the front will further dry out the already dry continental air mass leading to a significant drop in dew points following the front. The forecast drops RH values below 30% across central Louisiana and the interior portions of southeast Texas. Friday through Sunday look to be concerning for fire weather. However, Saturday appears to be the most critical day as the dry, subsided airmass becomes fully entrenched over the highly dried out fuels. This setup is similar to the weather conditions that sparked the Tiger Island fire in 2023 any fires that do spark could quickly spread out of control. The extended forecast unfortunately remains dry, but it will be less muggy as high pressure will be located to our northeast, allowing for easterly winds across the region. A weak ridge at 500 mb will keep our temperatures elevated through next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 746 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Moisture is beginning to pool at the surface beneath an expansively dry airmass. Within this developing sfc inversion, areas of fog may develop in the early morining hours Thursday. There is some confidence in location with AEX, LFT and ARA prevailing down to 1 to 2 SM, with a decrease to the west. VIS shouldn't be as low as Acadiana and a tempo group down to 5sm was included at LCH. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions can be anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Conditions will remain calm through Thursday night with light to moderate onshore winds. On Friday, a cold front will move offshore, causing widespread rain and a few thunderstorms. Behind the front, winds will quickly increase with offshore winds reaching 20 knots on Friday afternoon, then 30 knots by Friday evening. On Saturday, sustained winds will approach Gale strength with gusts up to 40 knots. With the high wind speeds, waves will quickly respond with heights up to 10 feet expected 40 nm offshore and up to 5 feet close to shore. Mariners should watch the forecast closely over the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With the ongoing drought conditions, we have KBDI values well into the 700s, with 10-hour and 100-hour fuel moisture values hovering around 25%. Subsidence behind the front will further dry out the already dry continental air mass, leading to a significant drop in dew points following the front. The forecast drops RH values below 30% across central Louisiana and the interior portions of southeast Texas. Friday through Sunday look to be concerning for fire weather. However, Saturday appears to be the most critical day as the dry, subsided airmass becomes fully entrenched over the highly dried out fuels. This setup is similar to the weather conditions that sparked the Tiger Island fire in 2023, and fires that do spark could quickly spread out of control. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ180-201-259>262. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...11