FXUS64 KLCH 222324 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 624 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Area wide Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon and again on Sunday with max heat index values of 111 F. - Heat Stress Levels have increased to Extreme (level 4 of 4) for southeast Texas and Louisiana Saturday; this level of heat stress will persist through at least Monday. - Chances for rainfall are low and spotty for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very weak troughing extending offshore this afternoon and evening will fill into Sunday becoming slack around standard atmospheric pressure ~ 1013mb. 22nd/18Z sounding illustrates a rather dry lower troposphere between the sfc - 800mb. However, the forecast does carry some late afternoon PoPs to account for any Seabreeze interaction with the northwest flow. Activity that does develops would appear to remain primarily sub-severe and isolated at best. That is a large change from Friday evening where measured instability (CAPE) was anomalously high in the 22nd/00Z sounding at 6699 J/KG*K and support robust updrafts across Acadiana yesterday. With the forecast trending mainly dry, sans the potential for late afternoon isolated activity in the short term, our main focus will trend toward hot temperatures and heat related impacts / illnesses. Upper 90's to low 100's with light winds will be the case through Monday afternoon. While drier air will be mixing down aloft, winds do turn back out onshore overnight and remain so into the early work week ahead. That influx of Gulf moisture will fight against mixing to keep dewpoints warm enough to support heat advisory criteria across the area through the weekend. A shortwave trough deepening southward, east of the Mississippi, will drive a frontal boundary toward the central/east Gulf coast into Tuesday morning before diminishing. Stronger surface ridging begins to migrate east over Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, troughing deepens south across the Southern Plains. However, because of the weak forcing and northwest flow on the forward side of the upper level ridge over southern New Mexico, blended guidance isn't too excited to account rain chances in the forecast, locally. Another impulse to the western flank of the shortwave trough extending across the midwest brings the Jet further south into the central Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will continue to trend toward the mid and upper 90s, but chances for rainfall do increase Thursday onward as a new frontal boundary meanders south toward the ARKLATEX region. Weak upper level troughing also appears to deepen in the Gulf potentially supporting a more baroclinic environment toward the coast into the following weekend. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few, small thunderstorms will continue to dissipate by 01Z. A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light and variable tonight into early Sunday with a more southwesterly component developing by 16Z through the afternoon. Ridging aloft will keep afternoon convection limited although with temperatures again expected to near or eclipse triple digits, the very unstable environment will allow some storms to develop after 19Z along the inland advancing sea breeze. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light onshore winds will continue for the next several days, and seas will range occasionally up to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Although portions of the forecast area along Acadiana received a healthy dose of rainfall, much of the area has remained largely dry across far west Louisiana and Southeast Texas. No appreciable / widespread rainfall is in the forecast through the middle of next week ahead, currently. Given the hot and mainly dry forecast, KBDI values are expected to slowly climb. Afternoon minRH values will range 35-45% this weekend. The main limiting factor for aggressive fire behavior is a lack of wind, with speeds generally expected to stay below 10 kts. Regardless, caution should be exercised and outdoor burning is not recommended. Multiple parishes and counties have burn bans in effect. Please consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...66