FXUS64 KLIX 090607
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
107 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Through the end of the workweek, very normal summer pattern with
  hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and
  thunderstorms expected. Chances of severe weather will be low,
  but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with
  gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters,
  especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the
  diurnal cycle.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for
  early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches
  from the north.  
  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The region remains under generally more active southwesterly flow
aloft on the western periphery of the ridge over the southwest
Atlantic and northeast Gulf. With the weakness over the Mid MS
River Valley the higher POPs will be across that region. However,
we certainly will not be rain free during peak heating this
afternoon. PWATs around 2.0" or so will assist in efficient
rainfall rates...so localized flooding will remain possible.
Outside of hydro related impacts, DCAPE values are also supportive
of gusty winds in the stronger thunderstorm activity. 

Going into tonight any convection will refocus offshore. Friday
looks to be similar in terms of POPs with little changes noted in
the overall pattern. However, the area going into the upcoming
weekend will be a bit on the wetter side with a stronger QPF
signal within the globals with a few H5 impulses/vorts pushing 
through the region. Temperatures through the short term will
remain at or slightly above average with a slight decrease in
afternoon highs with the gradually increasing rain chances. (Frye)  

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Upper ridging will be centered over the Dakotas and Wyoming Sunday 
evening, with a weaker ridge near the Bahamas. In between, will be a 
weakness or trough that will be centered near Interstate 40 Sunday 
evening, just south of Interstate 20 Monday evening, and be near the 
Louisiana coast Tuesday evening. The upper ridge will eventually 
head southeast later next week and to Georgia or the Carolinas by 
next weekend, but that's well beyond the scope of this forecast 
package. 

As the trough approaches from the north, precipitable water values 
near the 75th percentile Sunday afternoon (1.9 inches) will increase 
to the 90th percentile (2.1 inches) Monday afternoon. This is 
somewhat of a slower progression than we were looking at 24 hours 
ago. Additionally, the trough never really gets off the coast, so 
any mid level drying looks somewhat less likely to occur, with both 
the Euro and GFS ensembles holding precipitable water values at 
least near the 75th percentile. 

The forecast solutions from the operational global models would 
signal a wetter (and not as hot) period for Sunday through at least 
Tuesday, and probably Wednesday. If forecast soundings from the GFS 
are any indication, convective temperatures for Monday and Tuesday 
may only be in the middle 80s, which would mean an earlier start to 
thunderstorm development (before noon) and high temperatures 
remaining below 90 degrees for several days. 

Rainfall amounts in a cumulative sense could be fairly significant 
in the Sunday to Wednesday period, with WPC forecasts currently 
indicating 3 to 5 inches of rain in that period, with the more 
favored portion being the southern half of the area. We'll have to 
see how those trends play out over the next few days. (RW)

&&.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. However, there could be
some VIS/CIG reductions during the afternoon hours where
convection develops. Winds appear to remain southerly and light,
but may briefly become erratic and gusty around thunderstorm
activity this afternoon. (Frye) 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Mostly onshore flow as southerly winds are forecast through the 
upcoming weekend. Mostly favorable marine conditions expected 
outside of the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Locally, 
winds and seas may increase in and around convection and 
waterspouts will also be possible. (Frye) 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF