FXUS64 KLIX 231746 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 well into the new week. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. Those with outdoor plans should take precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Stay hydrated, wear light-weight and loose fitting clothes, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours today and Monday. A few storms could become strong to severe, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain. When thunder roars, go indoors. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tonight through Wednesday, upper level ridging will remain in place over the area to the west, and we will enter the "ring of fire" pattern. Southerly surface winds will continue to help advect warm air and moisture into the area, increasing the humidity across the region. Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will be expected for the next few days, but especially tomorrow as a lingering weakness influences the area. These storms where they occur will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40- 50mph). These storms are not expected to be severe, based on recent model trends. The heat continues as ridging builds back over the area. Highs in the upper 90s to low 100s combined with heat index values in the 105-112 degrees range will be quite warm and uncomfortable. Given the uncertainties with cloud cover for Monday, we held off on issuing a heat advisory for now. It will be looked at again on the next forecast cycle. Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and advisories may be needed. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure begins to break down over the area for the rest of the workweek into next weekend. Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing humidities for the area. Daily scattered showers or storms will be possible during peak heating hours as we return to a more normal summertime pattern. The main risk with these storms where they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph). The heat will linger with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 105-110 degree range, it will be quite uncomfortable outside. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. TEMPO groups are in the forecast for this afternoon and early evening at most area airports for scattered storms that will lower ceilings and visibilities temporarily to MVFR conditions. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW