FXUS65 KLKN 161909
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1209 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures this weekend

* Cooler temperatures next week

* Rain chances next week

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level ridge exiting the region
will leave zonal flow aloft, keeping the weather relatively calm 
through early next week. Temperatures through Monday will remain 
above normal for this time of year, with highs remaining in the 
upper 60s/lower 70s. Low temperatures will start in the low 30s 
tonight, and will continue to rise to the upper 30s/low 40s early 
next week. 

If you're looking for a chance to go outside and enjoy the
outdoors, the best chances for this are this weekend, as looking
into next week we start to see influences of the polar jet.
Starting Tuesday, the base of an upper level trough will extend
into southern California, bringing plenty of pacific moisture and
lift to our region. This will bring chances for precipitation for
the remainder of the forecast period, with the highest chances on
Thursday. Additionally, there is a low chance of isolated
thunderstorms on Tuesday. In terms of precipitation types,
temperatures remain high keeping it mostly rain, however some
mountain peaks will see the potential for some overnight snow. As
a result of precipitation and increased cloud cover, high
temperatures will drop to the upper 50s and low 60s, while low
temperatures will drop to the mid 30s. Models continue to push
back the timing of a cold front into late next week, continuing to
give low confidence on timing and intensity at this time. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the forecast
through Monday. Medium confidence in the precipitation and
temperature change next week. Low confidence on the chances of a
cold front late next week. 

&&


.AVIATION...

South/southeasterly gusty winds Friday afternoon, ranging
20-22KTs, will diminish after sunset at KTPH. VFR conditions will
prevail across all terminals for the next 24 hours. No
precipitation in the forecast through Thursday afternoon.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

High temperatures will continue to stay around 5 degrees above
normal through Monday afternoon. A cooling trend is expected
Tuesday through Thursday. Chances of precipitation are expected
Tuesday through Thursday bringing mountain snow and valley rain.
Isolated chances of thunder are possible with these storms on
Tuesday. Humidity and winds remain below the threshold of concern
during this time. 

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...90