FXUS63 KLMK 081130
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
730 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue bringing 
  threats of isolated flash flooding, lightning, and gusty winds 
  this afternoon and evening.

* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late week through 
  the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, 
  including potential for significant flash flooding, could develop 
  late week through the weekend with repeated rounds of heavy rain.

* Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with 
  complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall 
  confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Today, an upper low, embedded in a weak upper trough, is expected to 
get picked up by zonal flow. Stronger upper flow remains well north 
of the region which is causing the Lower Ohio Valley to lack 
meaningful wind energy, but we continue to have plenty of moisture 
with precipitable water values between 1.8-2" covering most of our 
CWA. Our top row of Indiana counties is in an area with slightly 
less moisture with PWATs between 1.6-1.8". 

This afternoon, diurnal warming will once again increase MLCAPE 
instability to between 1,300 to 1,800 J/kg which might be slightly 
less than what we saw yesterday, but we can expected scattered slow 
moving showers and thunderstorms to pose an isolated flooding threat 
for any area that gets stuck under a heavy downpour. Highs are 
expected to reach into the 80s with dew points in the low to mid 
70s. 

Tonight, we start to see the pattern change as what was the upper 
low begins to move east out of the area. This will begin the 
movement of the higher PWATs eastward. The high PWATs won't make it 
out of the area before Thursday morning, but any remaining showers 
and thunderstorms will begin dissipating as we lose diurnal heating. 
Patchy fog will once again be possible as temperatures fall. Lows 
are expected to drop to either side of 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Thursday, as the remnants of the former upper low gets carried off 
to the east, PWATs try to drop below 1.5". The day might not be 
completely dry, but any diurnally driven chances for showers and 
thunderstorms will likely be more isolated than they have been. As a 
surface low begins approaching the Lower Ohio Valley from the west, 
an increasing pressure gradient and added WAA will help drive 
slightly warmer temperatures, closer to 90 along and west of 
Interstate 65. 

Thursday evening into the early night, there is a chance that a 
system will continue moving east from the Plains and make it's way 
into the Lower Ohio Valley. Even though shear over the region is 
low, higher instability values could help an already developed 
system to sustain itself. This could bring a threat of strong to 
severe winds before weakening as the system moves off to the east 
later in the night.  

Friday into the weekend, a messy west to east oriented boundary is 
expected to set up and drop south through the Ohio Valley. This is 
expected to bring a return of PWAT values over 2". There could be 
some marginal instability at times, but overall the severe threat 
looks fairly low at this point. The main concern is expected to be 
flooding. Unlike the earlier activity Thursday evening which is 
expected to be quick moving, some of the later activity along the 
boundary Friday and Saturday could possibly be slower moving and see 
multiple rounds of heavy showers causing increased chances for flash 
flooding. If we get breaks in rounds of rain, the region will see 
less issues than if areas don't get a break from continuous showers. 

Early next week, precipitation chances look to finally drop as 
moisture gets pushed south of the CWA. High pressure behind the 
front is expected to bring clearer skies and slightly warmer 
temperatures in the low 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Current satellite shows areas of fog and low stratus across portions 
of KY and southern Indiana, affecting LEX, RGA, and HNB and within 
close proximity to BWG. Fog and low stratus will burn off quickly 
after sunrise, so expect VFR conditions to prevail after 13Z. Latest 
surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped across KY, which 
combined with diurnal heating and abundant moisture will likely 
result in another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. 
Expect torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning in and around 
any stronger cells. Winds will be light, outside of storms, 
predominately from the S to SW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CG