FXUS63 KLMK 090804 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 404 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Risk of severe storms this evening and tomorrow night. There remains a Slight Risk (level 2/5) mainly west of I-65 and a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) to the east. Storms will arrive later this evening from the west and weaken as they move east overnight. Main impact gusty to locally damaging winds. * These storms will have the capability of producing very heavy rain over a short period of time. Widespread 1-2 inches is possible with locally higher. Slow moving storms could produce localized flash flooding. * Flood Watch: additional Rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall are expected Friday through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could be possible with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. * A drier overall pattern looks to take hold for early to middle next week. Look for highs in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The main impacts through the short term will be the threat of severe storms with the main focus on the threat later this evening and overnight. There is also a flash flooding threat for the end of the week through the weekend. Highlighting that there is a potential for significant localized flash flooding as we will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall over areas that are still saturated from previous heavy rainfall the last couple of weeks. Multiple shortwave disturbances and potential MCS/MCV will work across the Ohio Valley for the end of the week through the weekend. At the same time, a sfc boundary currently to our north across the Great Lakes, will slowly work southward and stall by the start of the weekend. This will setup a situation where we will have deep moisture over the region as the multiple waves of showers and storms work along this boundary. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT: The bulk of the daytime hours today will be mainly dry as we will be between the departing system from last night and the next system coming in from the west later this evening and night. Convective development upstream over the Mid Mississippi Valley will occur later this afternoon then work eastward into western and central KY Thursday evening and continue into early Friday morning. SPC still has most locations along I-64 west of I-65 in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) with areas east from Louisville, Bowling Green to Lexington in Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, deep layer shear for organized convection remains between 20-25kt and we likely have amble MLCAPE as we go into the evening and overnight as some of that instability becomes more elevated. With the combination of forward movement of the convection along with water loading from the high PWAT values around 2 inches the threat of gusty locally damaging winds remains the main threat. As storms work from the west-northwest to the east-southeast late this afternoon and evening the storms are expected to weaken as we lose daytime heating. That is why the Slight Risk is more to the west as it will have better instability to work with from daytime heating. This activity is expected to reach the I-65 corridor and north central KY closer to midnight, which will have lower instability thanks to the loss of daytime heating. As we see more waves of convection along similar boundaries there remains a marginal risk for additional strong to severe storms again on Friday. FLASH FLOODING: As was mentioned above, PWAT values are expected to be near if not above 2" not only tonight but Friday and through the weekend. Add to that, we already have very wet and saturated conditions across southern IN and Kentucky from the multiple round of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms going back the last two weeks. Models continue to advertise that some areas could receive 3-7 inches of rainfall through Friday evening with more showers and thunderstorms capable of producing additional heavy rainfall into the weekend. That is why a Flood Watch is in effect until late Saturday night. With this setup, and multiple waves of heavy rainfall working repeatedly over already saturated ground sets up the potential for significant flooding possibilities going into the weekend. Remain weather aware now and into the weekend, share updated weather information for those who may potentially be most impacted and remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown! when and if you come across flooded roads or areas. By the end of the weekend, the last of the convective waves of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, along with the stalled boundary will push southward and out of the area. This is expected to be followed by sfc high pressure building in from the north to help dry us out. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast trends for the first half of the weekend continue to remain dry and warm as ridging is expected to build in over the region. Highs will build back into the upper 80s to near 90 Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 While VFR remain the main flight category through the forecast there are a few potential impacts that could for a period bring flight categories down to MVFR or even IFR. One of those being the potential for low CIGS or even a period of low VIS, mainly around BWG and other places that saw rain. Potential limiting factor maybe increased clouds and a steady light breeze but there are observations around the region where we are seeing MVFR to potentially IFR VIS already developing. Once any fog or clouds mix out VFR flight conditions will be around through the day as we will be between weather systems. Could see some SCT-BKN clouds between 2500-5000ft but not expected to be too much of a factor. The other potential impact comes towards the end of the period as the next system arrives with heavy rain and thunderstorms. Timing looks to be close to the 04-06z but will be dependent on what forms upstream over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and then when it gets here. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057- 061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN