FXUS63 KLMK 151748 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 148 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for most of the area with visibilities as low as 1/4 mile this morning. * Chance for severe weather has lessened somewhat, with the sole threat being strong to severe gusty winds. * Highs are warm across the south in the mid to upper 80s one last day before Friday. * Cool down and breezy winds arrive Friday, with a chance for frost in the Bluegrass overnight this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 =====Foggy, With Spotty Showers and Storms This Afternoon===== A game of cat and mouse is ongoing between departing clouds to the east, and approaching low to mid level clouds from the west. In areas that have seen a few hours of clearing, dense fog is forming. Timing and forecasting how thick the fog settles in is tricky because fog is hard to form with any cloud cover. Be that as it may. a Dense Fog Advisory will likely be issued very shortly to account for the observed dense fog in some areas that aren't in the typical valley locations, favored in areas from near Bowling Green towards Lexington and places NW from there, including the Louisville Metro. Though fog may not be quite as prevalent as a few nights ago, it will nonetheless cause concern for drivers in the morning. Beyond fog, winds are light as a cold front has nearly bisected our CWA. Nearly calm winds are present across the CWA, with generally southerly flow south of an east-to-west line from just north of Lake Cumberland to just north of BWG. Spotty showers are beginning to bubble up and move into our western CWA as well. Spotty showers can't be ruled out for the rest of the morning. This signifies the return to SW flow later this morning and afternoon as a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley today. Warm minimum temperature records may be broken later this morning considering how saturated we are (I'd imagine the whole CWA only has the chance to cool by another degree or two). Eventually, as the warm front lifts through our area, it will slowly raise cloud ceilings, scour out fog, and generally push lower PoPs to our north. SW flow may be enhanced due to the close presence of a developing low moving towards the Great Lakes region. When the warm front associated with this low passes to the north, there may be enough instability for storms to fire as it passes sometime after 12 Noon EDT. For now, since moisture is so high, at least in the lower levels, clouds will be rather slow to clear for pure sunshine before storms fire. In between clouds though, enough instability could present strong to severe wind gusts. The best wind shear will avoid us to the NW, and as a result, the tornado threat will likely completely miss our area. Highs with this enhanced SW flow behind the front will be quick to warm though despite the morning cloud cover. There is still a question of how much cloud cover will stick around this afternoon but for now, high temperatures should be warmest in the south (south of I-64) in the mid to upper 80s. North of the interstate, clouds and rain will take the longest to clear with highs in the lower 80s to upper 70s. It should be said that despite the chance for severe weather, rainfall coverage will be scattered at best and move fairly progressively with the strong SW flow. Additional rainfall totals have a 75% of remaining under 0.5", with an extremely isolated risk of up to 2" of rain should a heavy downpour or two track over the same areas this afternoon. We are not expecting any flash flooding concerns today as the best severe risk and flooding risk remain too far north. =====Strong Incoming Cold Front and Seasonable Warmth Next Week===== SW flow will intensify as the impending cold behind the departing Great Lakes low gets closer and sweeps through early Friday morning. Winds will increase by early morning and grow stronger throughout the day. Temperatures will fall into the 60s for highs and cooling throughout the afternoon after frontal passage with wind gusts of 25- 35 MPH. Saturday, lows are chilly in the morning as temperatures really struggle to reach the upper 50s. There is increasing confidence in widespread frost Saturday night with clear skies and lows forecast in the mid to low 30s. We will likely issue products related to this when the time comes. Beyond Saturday, high temperatures very very slowly moderate as highs Sunday reach the mid 60s. Isolated frost may be possible, although the positioning of a high pressure may allow weak southerly flow to moderate us just enough to stay out of frost territory. Long range trend is dry, really through the rest of the week. Temperatures look to remain near normal eventually settling into the low 70s by midweek next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A stationary front is currently draped over northern KY leading to more cloud cover on the cool side to the north. Overcast skies are beginning to break along with improving ceilings from south to north. Scattered to isolated rain showers (and a few storms) will remain in the TAFs for tonight and into tomorrow. Sites can expected a period of mostly VFR conditions this evening into the overnight ahead of a cold front moving in from the NW. As the boundary pushes into the forecast area overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, a wind shift with 20-25kt winds are expected for all sites. There is a 40-50% chance that wind gust could overachieve >25kts. With ample moisture ahead of the front, rain showers have to potential to form in the morning with the forcing of the boundary. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BKF AVIATION...CAL