FXUS66 KLOX 090616 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1116 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS...08/826 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge of high pressure over the region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as the ridge moves away from the region, but some heat impacts will continue. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting Sunday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major Heat Risk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...08/826 PM. ***UPDATE*** Another warm day across the local area today during what is expected to be a prolonged stretch of warm weather. Temperatures will likely creep up a couple more degrees through Friday, especially across the interior and valleys, before slight cooling is anticipated over the upcoming weekend. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures this weekend, temperatures will remain above normal and likely warm further over the middle of next week, resulting in this expected prolonged period of warm weather. Once again, winds have really cranked up along the western Santa Ynez range this evening as the pressure gradient is currently around 4.5 mb, with gusts over 55 MPH recorded recently at both Gaviota and Refugio so far. The responsible pressure gradient is expected to relax some Thursday, with less significant Sundowner winds expected tomorrow evening. Finally, the marine layer can be seen on satellite beginning to fill in across parts of the western Santa Barbara coast, but this marine layer is expected to remain limited for areas south of Point Conception, with more clouds and patchy fog possible for the Central Coast. ***From Previous Discussion*** An upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region through Friday, before starting to move NE on Saturday. 500 mb heights will range from 594 to 59STDAFDLOX6 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal for this time of year. There will be onshore flow to the east strongest in the afternoon, but a few mb weaker than it was earlier this week. There will be a mb or two of offshore flow from the north in the mornings turning weakly onshore to the north in the afternoons. High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the forecast period. With rising 500mb heights through Thursday, lack of a solid marine layer, and only weak to moderate onshore flow in the afternoon, conditions will be warmer than normal for this time of year. High temperatures through Thursday will range 92-103 across the valleys and 75-92 across the coasts/inland coasts. These temperatures are 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. On Friday and over the weekend, 500 mb heights will decrease with a slight increase in onshore flow, leading to a few degrees of cooling. However, temperatures will remain above normal for the time of year. However, temperatures will start to increase again next week, even warmer than this week. Thus, The Heat Advisory for all the valleys, mountains, and Los Angeles Inland Coast has been extended through Tuesday morning (please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all details). Advisory level Sundowner winds are expected again this evening and Thursday evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County, and a Wind Advisory is in effect late this afternoon into early Thursday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...08/139 PM. As previously mentioned, the upper level high pressure will shift NE late Friday through Sunday, and eventually reach the Dakotas. This northeastward shift will open the door for SE flowinto Southern California. Meanwhile, at the surface, moderate to strong onshore flow will continue both to the north and east. With the SE flow, monsoonal moisture will move into the region Sunday night, lasting through basically all of the next week. While the moisture won't reach the region until Sunday night, there is still instability that will bring a 10-20% chance of dry thunderstorms on Sunday. However, once the moisture moves in Sunday night, PWATs will raise to 1-1.5 inches across most of the region (even up to Paso Robles) through at least Tuesday, bringing a 10-20% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to Southern California. As for the heat, another warming trend will start up Tuesday through Thursday, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk, and a 30% chance of Major HeatRisk to most of the region during those days. Thus, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the majority of the region, with temperatures of 90-112 degrees possible away from the coast. Additionally, the monsoonal moisture will add to the discomfort of the heat. && .AVIATION...09/0612Z. At 0538Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2300 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds 10Z-15Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z. Low confidence in TAFs for KSMO (40 percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-16Z) and KLGB, KLAX and KPRB (40 percent chc of no cigs) KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs. Good confidence that VFR conds will arrive between 1630Z and 1730Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...08/1016 PM. For the outer waters, current Gale Warnings look on track ending Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will follow, lasting through at least Friday morning. Large 10-12 ft seas will subside Friday, but current SCA may need to be extended into Friday night due to winds and seas. SCA level NW-W winds, with local gusts near gale force are expected for the inner waters along the Central Coast until Thursday morning. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. Local SCA level wind gusts are also possible for far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...08/104 PM. A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development. Thunderstorms are also possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory now in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/KL/Rossi AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Phillips BEACHES...SF SYNOPSIS...RM/KL/SR weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox