FXUS64 KLUB 081800
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

 - Daily thunderstorm chances return Thursday and continue through
   Tuesday. For Thursday and Friday, the storm chances are
   generally confined to areas north and west of Lubbock.

 - Hot temperatures continue through Saturday, followed by a
   slight cooldown Sunday into early next week. 


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

At midday Wednesday, mostly clear skies existed across the
forecast area. A flattened upper ridge was positioned over the SW
CONUS, with an upper low over the Ohio Valley. A weak sfc low was
located over SW KS, which contributed to breezy SW winds this 
morning. As a weak shortwave ejects this afternoon, modest sfc 
pressure falls over SE CO will turn winds to S/SE locally. 
Convection will develop along the higher terrain of north NM/CO by
this evening and spread east, but any upper support from the 
aforementioned shortwave will be focused towards W KS, thus the 
expectation is our forecast area stays dry tonight.

For Thurs, a similar evolution to today is expected as another
impulse traverses the upper ridge. This will once again result in 
SW sfc winds during the morning followed by S/SE flow during Thurs
afternoon. High temps will be similar to Wed, perhaps a degree or
two warmer, generally in the upper 90s on the Caprock and low 
triple digits off the Caprock. This shortwave is expected to be 
slightly deeper, and track a bit further southeast, than tonight's
wave, which does introduce some low precip chances (10-20%) to 
the northwest portions of the forecast area Thurs evening, but the
better precip chances will once again be focused from I-40 
northward into W KS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

There is high confidence that the synoptic pattern will feature a 
strengthening ridge, with height rises occurring to our west and 
north as the ridge expands into the northern Plains this weekend. 
While there may be some modest height rises locally, it will not 
be sufficient to stymie precip development and at least some 
precip chances exist within the forecast area Fri-Tues, generally
in the afternoon or evening. 

Fri evening features a similar pattern to Wed-Thurs, thus precip
chances are once again focused across the northwest CWA (20%) and 
increase north of our forecast area. Precip chances expand and 
include much of the region both Sat evening (20-50%) and Sun 
afternoon/evening (20-40%). A slow moving front over the central 
Plains/Midwest will gradually be nudged southward by the sfc high 
that develops over the Midwest in response to the upper ridge. As 
this occur, the higher PWAT airmass will gradually shift south of 
our area, lowering the precip chances. The model blend kept a low 
chance (20%) of precip across the southern half of the forecast 
area on Mon/Tues, but the better precip chances (30-40%) will be 
to the south of our forecast area. While any storms that do form 
will be capable of producing gusty winds, organized severe storms 
appear unlikely over the next week owing to weak deep layer shear 
and uninspiring mid-level lapse rates.

Temperatures will remain similar through Saturday, then trend
slightly cooler early next week (highs on the Caprock in the low 
90s, mid 90s off the Caprock).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR remains firmly in place and will continue thru the prd.
Expecting breezy (10-15G20KT) SW winds at all three terminals 
through at least 00Z. After 00Z winds will slacken a bit but
remain from the southwest. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...28