FXUS64 KLUB 090500 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Daily thunderstorm chances expected Thursday through Tuesday of next week with the greatest potential Saturday and Sunday. - Hot temperatures prevail through Saturday before a slight cool down expected early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Current radar imager shows a weak outflow boundary just entering northwest Parmer County. This outflow will bring some breezy winds around 25 to 30 mph to northwestern zones. However, the boundary seems to be weakening quickly. Therefore, this boundary is not expected to make it very far through the forecast area. Small, short- lived showers have been developing along the boundary as it moved across eastern NM. However, in it's weakened state, chances for this will be low. Otherwise, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s to lower 80s across southern Rolling Plains. Thursday will be hot with slight thunderstorm chances across the southern Texas Panhandle. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging dominating southwestern CONUS including much of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. The upper ridging is expected to gradually retreat west through the day, however the edge will still clip our CWA bringing northwesterly flow aloft. Thickness increases due to the upper ridging will warm temperatures a couple degrees with highs in the upper 90s on the Caprock to just below Heat Advisory level off the Caprock. Surface winds will start off the day from the southwest through the early afternoon before shifting to the southeast later in the day. A very similar thunderstorm set up as today is expected Thursday evening. Southeasterly surface upslope flow will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in eastern NM. Northwesterly flow aloft will help in the storms tracking southeast to our forecast area. Models have see-sawed with how far these storms make it into our forecast area the past couple of forecasts. The greatest chances will be across the far southern Texas Panhandle, however cannot rule out these storms leaking into the northern South Plains. Severe storm potential is low with these storms. At most we will see rain showers with some breezy winds. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday will be a rinse and repeat of Thursday with hot temperatures and thunderstorm chances across northwestern zones of the CWA. Upper ridging will continue to dominate across southwestern CONUS as a broad upper trough begins to develop across eastern CONUS. With the forecast area sitting between the two upper disturbances, northwesterly flow will prevail aloft. Southeasterly surface flow will result in thunderstorms developing across higher terrain in eastern NM once again. Northwesterly upper flow will give the push these storms need to track southeast into our CWA. Thunderstorms are expected across the far southern Texas Panhandle with a low chance of expanding into the northern South Plains. Severe potential is low with these storms, however could see some gusty winds and outflows. Hot temperatures with highs in the 90s to triple digits continue Friday and Saturday. We will see a slight cool down beginning Sunday that is expected to continue through at least mid-week. Multiple upper shortwaves passing everyday will continue daily thunderstorm chances. Models indicate a weak front will approach the forecast area early next week possibly pushing the moist air to the south of theCWA effectively cutting short the daily thunderstorm chances. The current NBM keeps precipitation chances through Tuesday, however could see changes to future forecasts as the NBM catches up to the progression of the weak front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR and breezy southerly winds will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...19