FXUS64 KLUB 152312 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 612 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Periods of heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible through the late afternoon over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle. - Blustery north winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday and continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is possible for areas on the Caprock early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Our first "real" fall cold front has arrived and has pushed through nearly two thirds of the FA. Heavy rainfall continues ahead of and along the cold front. The Flood Watch and Flood Warning have been extended to 18Z as storms producing heavy rainfall continue to develop and move over our eastern zones. This activity should move out of the FA around or shortly after 18Z. Both hazards will be extended if this activity is much slower to move east, however. The area currently in the Flood Warning has seen the heaviest rainfall over the past 24 hours with ground stations (COOP and mesonets) reporting well over 4 inches and with radar estimates of 7+ inches, which seems very plausible. Winds behind the front will be breezy to low end windy this evening through Friday thanks to steady post-frontal pressure rises of 6-9 mb per 6 hours. CAA is not overly strong with this front, but it is present. Mostly cloudy skies should help keep highs in the 50s Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Clouds will begin to clear by late Friday afternoon through the overnight hours just as a surface high begins to settle over the FA and drops winds to 5 mph or less. This will be a decent setup for radiational cooling. Dewpoints behind the front will drop into the 20s on the Caprock and low/mid 30s off the Caprock. There is some uncertainty with how low temps will drop by Saturday morning. As of now, there is high confidence in at least our northwestern zones hitting at to below freezing. Further south and east, temperatures will be very dependent upon cloud cover and where the surface low eventually settles. The NBM has started to come around to most MOS guidance. MOS guidance (MAV, MET, and ECM) have been pointing to lows at least in the mid 30s across the Caprock for several days now and continue to lower with each run. MET guidance is the coolest at 31 at KLBB. While the forecast grids don't reflect the coolest, they have been lowered from NBM. A Freeze Watch will also be in effect for areas on the Caprock from 06-15Z Saturday. While not all of the area may see freezing temps, they should get low enough to cause stress to sensitive plants, especially those still taking advantage of the semi-late growing season and recent rainfall. We are also several days from the average first freeze across the northwest and two weeks before at Lubbock. Upper ridging will move overhead this weekend as part of a weak blocking pattern, and the upper high will push to the southeast by Saturday afternoon. The shifting surface high will bring surface winds to the south to southeast and will help to warm highs back into the 70s early next week. Another upper is progged by models to move into California by mid next week, but there is much disagreement in the models with the future of the upper low beyond Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Showers and thunderstorms along with low stratus has exited all terminals this evening with dry and breezy conditions expected to continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Expect northerly windsaround 15-25G35KTs at all terminals overnight through much of the day Friday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>035-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...12