FXUS61 KLWX 081942 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 342 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is increasing in a threat for severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding on Thursday. A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for Annapolis for tonight's high tide. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Saturday. - 2) Drier conditions return early next week, along with a slight uptick in temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. A frontal zone has stalled out across North Carolina, arcing northward along the Appalachian Mountains. Weak high pressure is positioned to the north, with onshore flow responsible for the abundance of low clouds and cooler temperatures. Most showers and thunderstorms are developing along the southern and western periphery of the forecast area this afternoon, closer to the frontal zone. The severe weather threat is low. However, precipitable water values remain high in this zone, and slow storm motions could result in heavy rainfall totals. This could result in an isolated instance of flooding, especially if it falls in an area which has recently seen heavy rain. Low clouds will likely fill back in tonight, with some fog or mist possible in some locations. There will also be an opportunity for some showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms during the second half of the night through mid Thursday morning due to warm advection and PVA across the stalled frontal zone. This activity shouldn't be hazardous, but there may be some briefly heavy rain. An upper level low over the Tennessee Valley today will open and eject eastward on Friday. The frontal zone will likely lift northward, allowing deeper moisture to advect over the region along with slightly higher temperatures. A wave of low pressure may also develop along the boundary. All combined, convection will likely initiate over the terrain and within a pressure trough during the midday hours, spreading eastward through the afternoon. Coverage will likely be high enough, combined with shear up to 30 kt, that activity could congeal into clusters east of the Blue Ridge. This could result in strong to damaging wind gusts. Given the moist profiles and weak low level winds, higher end wind damage is less likely compared to some recent events. Confidence is increasing in the overall severe weather potential, with SPC indicating a Slight Risk now along the I-95 corridor. Even though storms will have some forward motion, precipitable water values over 2 inches will lead to very heavy rain rates. Thus any repetitive or conglomerating storms could result in flash flooding, especially if the rain were to fall in more sensitive areas. WPC has increased the excessive rainfall outlook to Slight for a large part of the area. Storms will likely quickly exit during the evening hours. Temperatures will likely tick up a bit more on Friday, with some areas crossing into the 90s. A more pronounced shortwave trough will approach, helping push a cold front southward toward the area. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop again in the warm and humid air mass, although there is some question in coverage and strength given unidirectional westerly flow along with lower instability compared to Thursday. With that said, there will be some mentionable shear with the trough, and storms will be capable of producing heavy rain rates. Thus there could be an attendant risk for damaging winds and flooding depending on how the details unfold. The front will remain nearby on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger, although the exactdetails become more uncertain by this point. Temperatures are also likely lower with the front overhead. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier conditions return early next week, along with a slight uptick in temperatures. High pressure moves overhead on Sunday, along with a broad upper- level ridge forming over the northern Plains. Heights begin to build toward the middle of next week as the upstream ridge attempts to expand eastward. This will lead to a gradual decrease in rain & thunderstorm chances early next week, as well as a gradual uptick in temperature forecasts. After falling to the low 80s on Sunday in the wake of Saturday's cold front, highs could reach the low-to-mid 90s by midweek, which will overall be a return to near-normal temperatures for this period of the summer. Cloud cover could still be slow to clear on Sunday, but should gradually become sunnier by Monday and Tuesday. Looking ahead, a deep upper-level trough begins to form over the Northeast by midweek, which could introduce additional rain chances as it passes through by late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds are slowly lifting and scattering out this afternoon, although it may take a couple more hours for all locations to return to VFR. The greatest chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening will be at CHO. While confidence has increased enough for a TAF mention, it is uncertain how well thunderstorms hold together crossing the Blue Ridge into a slightly more stable airmass. Winds gradually shift to south to southeasterly by this evening. Another round of low clouds are looking likely tonight, and some patchy fog/mist is also possible toward dawn. There is also an increasing chance of showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms crossing the area in advance of a warm front late tonight through mid morning Thursday. Given model disagreement in timing and coverage, only included a PROB30 for now. Expect a return to VFR conditions by mid morning Thursday. Confidence is increasing in thunderstorms developing near MRB early Thursday afternoon before progressing east across the area during the afternoon to early evening. Strong wind gusts and very heavy rain will be possible. Fog may form in the wake of the storms Thursday night. There will be a threat of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday as a cold front slowly settles across the area. After the front passes to the south early Sunday, predominantly VFR conditions are expected through Monday. Northerly winds shift easterly by Sunday evening. && .MARINE... A wavering front and weak pressure gradients will result in sub-advisory winds through Friday. Southerly winds tonight and Thursday will shift westerly Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible both Thursday and Friday, with the greatest chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and early evening. A cold front tracks through on Saturday, potentially causing a few showers over the waters and thunderstorm-associated gusts. Outside of thunderstorms, winds stay below SCA thresholds through the weekend and into early next week. Winds flow northwesterly Saturday before shifting easterly by Sunday evening. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies are around 1-1.5 feet this afternoon. Winds will turn more southerly tonight, leading to a further uptick in water levels. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for tonight's high tide. Havre de Grace will also be close. A gradual decline in water levels is expected this weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AMEDT Thursday for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADS/SRT AVIATION...ADS/SRT MARINE...ADS/SRT