FXUS61 KLWX 091931 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 331 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 474 has been issued for most of the area until 10 PM, although storms are likely to exit the area sooner than that. Flood Watch was expanded westward to include all of northern Maryland and portions of eastern West Virginia. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne Arundel County from 11 PM tonight through 5 AM Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. - 2) Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next week, followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity as they move east into a higher instability axis. Locally damaging winds, isolated flash flooding, and frequent lightning are the main threats. Activity should move east of the Chesapeake Bay by 8 PM, if not sooner. It should remain quiet overnight with patchy fog, especially in areas that saw rain this afternoon. Some degree of convective threat likely continues into Friday given ample moisture in the atmosphere. However, a primarily westerly flow often is known to negate the development of more organized thunderstorm activity. Friday does mark the warmest day of the remainder of the week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Depending on how much rainfall occurs during the previous day, some level of flash flood risk may take place again on Friday afternoon/evening, particularly south of I-66. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next week, followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek. Broad upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Desert Southwest and Rockies on Monday, allowing for continued high pressure to settle over the area on Monday. Temperatures continue to stay in the low-to-mid 80s at the start of the work week before steadily rising into midweek as heights continue to build. Temperatures could return to the 90s by Wednesday, with humidity increasing somewhat as dewpoints go from the lower to upper 60s & low 70s as temperatures rise. To the north, a deep upper-level trough begins to form over eastern Canada Thursday going into Friday. This could introduce opportunities for showers & thunderstorms towards the end of the week as this system continues to track eastward. While probability outlooks could still change significantly being 7 days out, early ML & AI outlooks have currently identified a 15%-30% probability for severe weather occurrence associated with this system. As details on this system become more defined, will have to continue to monitor synoptic fluctuations in model guidance to help identify any hazards associated with this system in the coming days. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through 7 PM. Have maintained a TEMPO group in the 3 to 7 PM timeframe with lesser chances for Charlottesville. Restrictions are likely as these storms roll through, some of which could be severe in nature. In the wake of these storms, initial southerly winds turn more southwest to westerly tonight. Low ceilings are again possible, particularly in areas which saw heavier rainfall. Westerly winds on Friday may offset some of the convective threat on Friday. However, some afternoon to evening restrictions will again be possible. A cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to northwesterly winds. These eventually turn more easterly on Sunday intoMonday as the boundary slides farther to the south. Despite some weekend shower chances, mainly VFR conditions are expected. VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals between Monday and Tuesday. Light easterly winds shift southwesterly Tuesday. && .MARINE... With summertime gradients in place, any potential for Small Craft Advisories appears low through the weekend and into early next week. Any hazardous conditions over the waterways will again be tied to thunderstorms, lightning, and any gust fronts/outflows. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for this afternoon and evening as strong convection pushes eastward to the I-95 metro areas. While westerly winds should offset some of Friday's convective threat, some storms could impact the waters during the core heating hours. Winds remain below SCA thresholds Monday and Tuesday. Easterly winds between 5-10 knots shift south to southwest on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies are around 1 to 1.25 feet will continue through tonight as winds remain southerly. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for tonight's high tide. A gradual decline in water levels is expected this weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ004>006-008- 011-013-014-503>508. Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003-501-502-509- 510. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for MDZ014. VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ027-029>031- 040-053-054-501-505>507-526-527. Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ028. WV...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for WVZ050>053-055- 501>504. MARINE...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/SRT AVIATION...LFR/BRO/SRT MARINE...LFR/BRO/SRT