FXUS61 KLWX 150053 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 853 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Record high max were set at all three major airports, Annapolis, and Hagerstown. DCA set the record for the latest 90F reading in a calendar year. Record high minimums are also likely at HGR, IAD, and MRB. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A few showers are expected tonight, Thursday, with thunderstorms and risk of severe weather Friday. - 2) Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average this weekend. Dry, but with areas of frost possible and near freezing temperatures, mainly west of I-95, Saturday night and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1....A few showers are expected tonight, Thursday, with thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather Friday. A front will stall near/south of the region Thursday morning as high pressure over southeast Ontario wedges down the mountains. This will return temperatures back into the mid to upper 60s under cloudy skies and on/off shower chances throughout the entirety of the day. The front retreats back to the north before washing out over the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This is due in part to the wedging high pressure system over southeast Ontario shifting toward the southern New England coast allowing winds to switch back to the southerly direction. The wedge will erode quickly as a result allowing for a quick spike in temperatures ahead of a stronger front Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Gusty showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening (Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) mainly east of US-15 and toward the I-95 metros) as a true strong (Fall) cold front crosses the region. It will get breezy Friday afternoon as mid-level heights quickly fall and the surface pressure gradient tightens in response to a deepening low tracking to our north. Peak wind gusts of 35-45 mph are possible in the mountains, and 30-40 mph elsewhere. Wind Advisories may be needed for some portion of the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge Friday afternoon into Friday night although model trends continue to decrease winds over a large spatial area (i.e immediate surge along the front and disjointed trough compared to the pressure rises on the back end). A squeegee line of gusty showers and some thunderstorms are expected late Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the front. If thunderstorms can tap into the increasing winds aloft, there certainly could be a few strong to severe wind gusts.A potent upper trough passes through the region Friday night, bringing a reinforcing cold front that pushes out any lingering precipitation. Highs Friday push into the upper 70s and low 80s early in the day before falling into 60s and 70s (40s and 50s mountains) Friday evening. Expect overnight lows in the 40s (30s mountains) Friday night. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average this weekend. Dry, but with areas of frost possible and near freezing temperatures, mainly west of I-95, Saturday night and Sunday night. A strong mid-level disturbance will quickly transverse the region Saturday. High pressure will build into the region later Saturday through Tuesday. Gusty northwest and northerly winds will diminish through the day Saturday as the last of any precipitation moves out and east of southern Maryland. Clearing skies and less wind expected the remainder of the weekend. With such conditions, areas of frost have a better opportunity to form across a large part or the region, especially west of the I-95 corridor. Frost and/or freeze headlines may be needed for Saturday night and early Sunday. As mentioned before, the mountains typically have their first freeze October 11, Shenandoah Valley area October 21, and east of the Blue Ridge November 1. High pressure will move overhead and then east early next week. This will allow for temperatures to modify more closer to average with dry conditions continuing. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Precipitation may not even make it to CHO given the orientation of the boundary and timing. Drizzle will likely impact this area when the front stalls Thursday morning. As a result, expect periods of sub-VFR conditions this afternoon through Thursday afternoon. MVFR cigs and vsbys are likely at most terminals with a brief window for IFR conditions Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, especially in locations west of I-95 corridor terminals as the wedge settles in. Winds today will remain out of the west and southwest at 5 to 15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts at times. Winds switch to the north and northwest tonight into Thursday morning before turning southerly late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Conditions will improve as result with the wedge eroding in southerly flow late Thursday afternoon and night ahead of the next strong cold front/upper level trough set to cross Friday. The strong cold front moves through Friday afternoon into Friday night. A noticeable increase in winds is expected along with a squeegee line of gusty showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds gust 25-30 knots Friday afternoon, then turn northwest behind the front Friday night. VFR conditions Saturday through Sunday night. Winds northwest 15 to 20 knots gusts up to 30 knots Saturday, diminishing northwest to northeast 5 to 10 knots Saturday night. Winds variable 5 to 10 knots Sunday and Sunday night. && .MARINE... A front approaches the waters from the north later this afternoon and evening bringing a scattered showers and perhaps a gusty thunderstorm. The front will kick northerly winds back into SCA criteria later this evening into Thursday morning with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds will shift from the south back to the north and northwest behind the front. Winds gradually diminish Thursday afternoon and evening. SCA conditions are expected to develop across all the waters by Friday morning, then Gale conditions are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday. Gale Watches may be issued later today to encompass this threat, especially over the lower waters of the bay and tidal Potomac. There could be Gales Saturday, followed by Small Craft Advisories Saturday night into Sunday morning. Afterwards, winds should diminish enough to have no additional headlines Sunday afternoon and night. Winds northwest 15 to 25 knots gusts 30 to 35 knots possible Saturday, diminishing north to northeast 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 to 30 knots Saturday night. Winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots Sunday and Sunday night. && .CLIMATE... Record high maximum were set at all three major airports today with DCA setting a new record for the latest date of 90F reading in a calendar year breaking the old record of Oct 11 in 1919. In addition, record high minimum temperatures are likely at HGR, IAD, and MRB based on current dewpoints and the fact the cold front will not cross the area until after 06Z. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/EST AVIATION...LFR/KLW/EST MARINE...LFR/KLW/EST