FXUS61 KLWX 151400 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1100 EDT. Tweaked temperatures to account for slower warming this morning, as well as PoPs to reflect showers anticipated along the southeastern portions of the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Strong cold front to bring threat of severe weather and gusty winds Friday, then much colder air surges in. - 2) Frost and freezing temperatures possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong cold front to bring threat of severe weather and gusty winds Friday, then much colder air surges in. A passing cold front pushing to the south will bring widespread clouds and passing showers today, though most of the shower activity is likely to be on the light side. Temperatures will remain in the 60s this afternoon, then drop to the 50s tonight. Surface high to our north slides offshore this evening which is going to cause winds over the Mid-Atlantic to veer southerly tonight. The frontal surface mostly washes out by Friday morning as an area of low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into Ontario. Warm conditions return Friday as sunshine and southwest winds push highs back up to the low to mid 80s. Models continue to slow the arrival of our next cold front. The leading edge of the front, with its associated line of showers and thunderstorms, is now progged to cross the area Friday late afternoon to evening. The later arrival also allows for more instability to develop, which will act to fuel stronger thunderstorms. Sufficient shear should support an organized like of convection, with embedded severe thunderstorms. While damaging wind gusts are going to be the primary threat, a quick QLCS tornado spin-up is certainly possible. SPC has added a Slight Risk across the northern Shenandoah Valley to northern MD, with a Marginal Risk covering the rest of the forecast area. This line of thunderstorms pushes east of the area late Friday evening, but the main upper trough lags far behind. The system becomes more anafrontal Friday night into Saturday morning, with overrunning showers and breezy conditions. The positively tilted upper trough finally swings through Saturday afternoon, with conditions drying out from northwest to southeast. Due to the less amplified nature of the upper trough we probably don't reach Wind Advisory criteria, even in the mountains. Still, gusty conditions with peak gusts around 30-40 mph likely Saturday afternoon. The biggest story is going to be the much colder airmass that settles over the region. Highs Saturday only reach the mid to upper 50s as strong cold advection persists behind the cold front. KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost and freezing temperatures possible this weekend. A sharp transition to cold weather is expected behind a strong cold front this weekend. This dry airmass in combination with clearing skies and weakening winds Saturday night creates an ideal environment for efficient radiational cooling conditions throughout the area. Overnight temperatures could drop to near or below freezing west of the Blue Ridge on Saturday and Sunday night. Most areas across our region have opportunities for frost to form, particularly west of I-95. Daytime temperatures could struggle to even reach into the high 50s this weekend, noticeably cool for Mid- October high temperatures. For added context, the mountains typically have their first freeze October 11, Shenandoah Valley area October 21, and east of the Blue Ridge November 1. To start off next week, high pressure builds and remains overhead through next Wednesday. A dry and benign weather pattern is expected during this time frame. Next week, daytime temperature gradually warm, returning to near normal fall conditions. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front passing south of the region today is going to produce widespread clouds with passing showers. MVFR then eventually IFR CIGs develop from west to east, with CHO beginning the earliest. The IFR CIGs are most likely this evening into tonight, then CIGs improve and VFR conditions return after sunrise Friday. A strong cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon, then a reinforcing cold front moves through Saturday morning. A line of showers and thunderstorm along the front could bring brief sub-VFR conditions and strong wind gusts. Overrunning showers and low clouds are possible Friday night into Saturday morning, then conditions quickly return to VFR after sunrise Saturday. Strong northwest winds behind the front could gust up to 25-30 knots Saturday afternoon. Winds quickly diminish Saturday evening as high pressure builds overhead. Winds quickly weaken by Sunday remaining light through the beginning of next week. VFR conditions are expected for all terminals during this period with variable winds on Sunday become predominantly southerly by Monday. && .MARINE... A brief surge of north to northeast winds expected through this afternoon, with winds around 10-15 knots. Some gusts around 20 knots are possible through this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect until 1100 AM this morning during the period of peak wind gusts. Winds diminish this evening and turn south. Southerly channeling likely produces SCA conditions across all the waters by early Friday afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms is likely to move across the waters Friday evening. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts over 35-40 knots. Winds turn northwest behind a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday. Gale conditions are possible during this time, especially over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Regardless, hazardous marine conditions with peak gusts around 25-30 knots. Winds start to slowly diminish Saturday night, but still gust around 20-25 knots. SCA-level wind conditions could linger Sunday morning before subsiding below SCA criteria by Sunday evening and into next week. Northeasterly winds on Sunday shift east to southerly on Monday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRR/SRT/KVH AVIATION...KRR/SRT/KVH MARINE...KRR/SRT/KVH