FXUS61 KLWX 191929 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 329 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Nothing. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the Shenandoah River Valley along a lee-side trof in a hot unstable air mass. These thunderstorms will track to the ENE around 10 kt reaching the metros after 5 PM and dissipating by 9 PM, if not sooner. Warm and muggy night on tap with lows in the 70s. A lee-side trof will develop Wed afternoon well ahead of a strong cold front expected to move through the area late Wed night. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon into the early evening with a threat of mainly downburst winds given very hot and unstable air mass. Believe there will be enough coverage of severe thunderstorms for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued. Convection should start to wane after 9 PM, but showers could linger well into the overnight as cdfnt crosses the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The synoptic scale pattern will remain relatively stagnant through the long term period, with weak upper troughing off to our west over the Ohio Valley, and surface high pressure off to our north and northeast. This will lead to a pattern where marine influence low- level easterly flow is nearly continuously overrun by south to southwesterly flow aloft. This persistent warm advection regime aloft atop stable low-level air will lead to cloudy skies with on and off showers Thursday through Monday. This will bring much needed, beneficial rains to the forecast area, with ensemble means showing around one to two inches of rain across much of the forecast area during that time. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30 degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s. Ensemble guidance shows much larger spread in temperatures Saturday through Monday, with some solutions keeping us locked into low cloud cover and temperatures in the 50s/60s, while some other solutions try to break us out of the low clouds, causing temperatures to climb into the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prob30 group added for all terminals this afternoon mainly between 20Z-00Z. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon. Some low CIGS may hang on through Wednesday night before lifting Thursday as the front sits south of the region. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening bring additional sub-VFR periods at terminals Wind gusts could reach 15-20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Sub-VFR conditions appear likely on Friday and Saturday in association with low clouds and showers. Winds will generally be out of the east to southeast on both Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... SCA southerly channeling can be expected again this afternoon and evening. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds may near low-end SCA levels in south to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, and then again in northerly flow on Thursday. SMWs appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as thunderstorms move over the waters. East to southeasterly winds may near low-end SCA levels late Thursday through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 19-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ534-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KJP AVIATION...LFR MARINE...LFR