FXUS61 KLWX 200059 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 859 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Earlier showers and thunderstorms have largely diminished. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Showers and thunderstorms that ignited along a leeside trough earlier have pretty much diminished, though a couple rogue pop up showers or sprinkles remain possible from Annapolis MD west to Franklin WV including the DC metro and north-central VA into the Shenandoah Valley until about 10 PM or so. Overnight low temperatures will be rather warm in the 60s and 70s. A lee-side trof will develop Wed afternoon well ahead of a strong cold front expected to move through the area late Wed night. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon into the early evening with a threat of mainly downburst winds given very hot and unstable air mass. Believe there will be enough coverage of severe thunderstorms for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued. Convection should start to wane after 9 PM, but showers could linger well into the overnight as cdfnt crosses the area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The synoptic scale pattern will remain relatively stagnant through the long term period, with weak upper troughing off to our west over the Ohio Valley, and surface high pressure off to our north and northeast. This will lead to a pattern where marine influence low- level easterly flow is nearly continuously overrun by south to southwesterly flow aloft. This persistent warm advection regime aloft atop stable low-level air will lead to cloudy skies with on and off showers Thursday through Monday. This will bring much needed, beneficial rains to the forecast area, with ensemble means showing around one to two inches of rain across much of the forecast area during that time. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30 degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s. Ensemble guidance shows much larger spread in temperatures Saturday through Monday, with some solutions keeping us locked into low cloud cover and temperatures in the 50s/60s, while some other solutions try to break us out of the low clouds, causing temperatures to climb into the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Removed any precip mention from the TAFs through Wednesday morning. Made a broad attempt to slightly consolidate the timing of convection in the inherited PROB30s for Wednesday afternoon and evening, though the potential for multiple rounds and timing inconsistencies among the latest guidance make that a difficult task. Details should become clearer later tonight into Wednesday morning in terms of timing/placement of one or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Lower CIGs are possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the parent cold front drifts through, shifting winds from W/SW to NW. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening bring additional sub-VFR periods at terminals. Wind gusts could reach 15-20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Sub-VFR conditions appear likely on Friday and Saturday in association with low clouds and showers. Winds will generally be out of the east to southeast on both Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Winds should gradually taper overnight, with gustiness lingering longest over the wider waters off southern MD. Winds near SCA levels in south to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, and then again in northerly flow on Thursday. SMWs appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as thunderstorms move over the waters. East to southeasterly winds may near low-end SCA levels late Thursday through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 19-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ534-543. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF AVIATION...LFR/DHOF MARINE...LFR/DHOF