FXUS64 KLZK 082323 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 623 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon but with less coverage than days past. Rain chances decrease even more Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures will remain very warm but at or near seasonal averages. Heat advisories may be needed over the east Thursday and possibly Friday which will be the warmest days of the week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as several upper level systems move through. Precipitation will not be restricted to just the hottest time of the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 |Not many value added changes to make to the current forecast this morning as guidance has remained consistent with previous thinking. As expected, convection did fire up Tuesday afternoon and quickly dissipated after sunset. Conditions across the FA this morning are generally clear with temperatures currently a few degrees warmer versus previous nights and range from the lower to mid 70s. The upper level feature that largely drove the convection the past few days is now over western Tennessee and slowly moving away. Any convection today will once again be diurnally driven but the CAMS guidance shows more sporadic coverage and a broadbrush 20% should suffice. With less cloud coverage/precipitation chances in the forecast, widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. Convection coverage will diminish Thursday/Friday as upper level high pressure tries to nose in resulting in the warmest days of the week with highs well in the 90s for everyone. No heat related headlines will be needed today but heat index values over our eastern zones may require a heat advisory Thursday and possibly Friday. Precipitation chances increase this weekend as a messy pattern develops allowing several weak shortwaves to move through the prevailing flow. Moisture remains elevated and precipitation chances will not be restricted to just the afternoon through early evening hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances. Early next week, the upper pattern begins to morph with a strong upper level ridge developing over the 4 corners and into the northern plains. If this does come to fruition, precipitation chances go back down with NE upper flow developing but temperatures will remain quite warm && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Widespread VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with the exception being a t'storm wandering near a terminal or two. Scattered t'storm activity across the central portion of the state is expected to decrease as the sun sets this evening. Another round of afternoon convection is possible in Northern AR tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in placement and coverage remains low at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 73 94 78 / 20 0 30 10 Camden AR 92 73 95 76 / 30 10 0 0 Harrison AR 90 74 93 78 / 20 0 20 20 Hot Springs AR 92 75 94 77 / 20 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 92 76 95 78 / 20 20 10 0 Monticello AR 91 75 94 77 / 20 20 10 0 Mount Ida AR 91 74 92 77 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 89 72 92 77 / 20 0 20 20 Newport AR 91 74 96 78 / 30 0 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 91 74 95 77 / 20 10 10 0 Russellville AR 94 75 95 79 / 20 10 20 10 Searcy AR 92 73 95 77 / 20 10 10 10 Stuttgart AR 91 75 95 78 / 30 10 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...78