FXUS64 KLZK 090509 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon but with less coverage than days past. Rain chances decrease even more Thursday and Friday. - Temperatures will remain very warm but at or near seasonal averages. Heat advisories may be needed over the east Thursday and possibly Friday which will be the warmest days of the week. - Rain chances increase over the weekend as several upper level systems move through. Precipitation will not be restricted to just the hottest time of the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 |Not many value added changes to make to the current forecast this morning as guidance has remained consistent with previous thinking. As expected, convection did fire up Tuesday afternoon and quickly dissipated after sunset. Conditions across the FA this morning are generally clear with temperatures currently a few degrees warmer versus previous nights and range from the lower to mid 70s. The upper level feature that largely drove the convection the past few days is now over western Tennessee and slowly moving away. Any convection today will once again be diurnally driven but the CAMS guidance shows more sporadic coverage and a broadbrush 20% should suffice. With less cloud coverage/precipitation chances in the forecast, widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected. Convection coverage will diminish Thursday/Friday as upper level high pressure tries to nose in resulting in the warmest days of the week with highs well in the 90s for everyone. No heat related headlines will be needed today but heat index values over our eastern zones may require a heat advisory Thursday and possibly Friday. Precipitation chances increase this weekend as a messy pattern develops allowing several weak shortwaves to move through the prevailing flow. Moisture remains elevated and precipitation chances will not be restricted to just the afternoon through early evening hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances. Early next week, the upper pattern begins to morph with a strong upper level ridge developing over the 4 corners and into the northern plains. If this does come to fruition, precipitation chances go back down with NE upper flow developing but temperatures will remain quite warm && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect VFR conditions to prevail across all sites between the forecast period of early Thursday morning and early Friday morning. A few instances of thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arkansas or at the sites of KHRO and KBPK later Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 94 78 93 76 / 20 20 20 40 Camden AR 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 93 78 92 75 / 30 20 30 40 Hot Springs AR 94 77 94 77 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 95 78 95 78 / 10 10 10 0 Monticello AR 94 77 94 77 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 92 77 91 77 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 92 77 91 74 / 30 30 30 40 Newport AR 96 78 96 77 / 20 20 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 95 77 95 77 / 10 10 0 0 Russellville AR 95 79 95 78 / 20 10 0 10 Searcy AR 95 77 95 76 / 20 10 20 10 Stuttgart AR 95 78 95 78 / 10 10 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...74