FXUS64 KLZK 150523 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal to near record temperatures will continue through the next few afternoons. - Wednesday afternoon heat index values will near or possibly 100 degrees. - Scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state Wednesday afternoon. - Another round of elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on Friday. - Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Recent objective analysis depicted a 30 to 40 kt SWrly H850 LLJ positioned acrs the Ozark Plateau. Regional mosaic radar imgry also revealed incrsg covg of elevated precip asctd w/ wrm advection over NErn OK and SWrn MO, ahead of an advancing convective complex fm SErn KS, w/ 00Z HREF/REFS solns suggesting the leading edge of this complex wl be moving acrs NWrn to Nrn AR near 12Z Wed mrng. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far south precip activity will reach thru Wed aftn, and this wl mainly depend on the resultant outflow strength. Latest hi-res QPF guidance suggests a swath of one to two inches across far NWrn AR, w/ isolated amounts near one inch extending Ewrd over the Boston Mountains into Cntrl AR. Elsewhere, minimal rainfall, under one quarter inch, is expected, w/ a sharp cutoff to no accumulations towards SErn AR. Where rainfall and asctd thicker cloud cover does not occur, mainly the Srn half of the state, above normal to near record temperatures will persist again on Wed, while relatively cooler temps in the upper 80s wl be seen acrs NWrn to Nrn AR. Thurs thru Fri, a progressive shortwave trof is progged to quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole quickly amplifying over the CONUS, e.g., strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley w/ incrsg divergence aloft, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Per the latest 00Z guidance, timing remains consistent w/ the cdfrnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn. Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air. With no appreciable precip expected, another bout of elevated to near critical wildfire danger will be seen acrs Ern to SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile. Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 25th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent sfc obs acrs Nrn AR indicated MVFR to IFR CIGs and VISBYs. Expect this activity to be intermittent at times, w/ Nrn terminal condns improving to MVFR levels by 15/10Z, and VFR levels by late Thurs mrng. Some additional precip wl be possible acrs Wrn to NWrn AR thru early Thurs mrng. Elsewhere, VFR condns are fcst, w/ ocsnlmid lvl cloud covg. Variable winds overnight wl become SWrly, w/ some gusty condns possible. Late in the PD... after 00Z Thurs night... a strong cdfrnt wl begin to move thru the FA, w/ strong NWrly winds ensuing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 56 66 44 / 10 10 10 0 Camden AR 93 61 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 87 48 60 41 / 40 80 0 0 Hot Springs AR 91 58 69 45 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 92 62 70 46 / 0 0 10 0 Monticello AR 92 64 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 51 67 42 / 0 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 88 51 61 43 / 30 70 0 0 Newport AR 92 60 68 46 / 0 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 93 61 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 92 55 67 44 / 10 40 0 0 Searcy AR 92 59 69 44 / 0 0 10 0 Stuttgart AR 94 63 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...72