FXUS64 KLZK 162216 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 516 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 513 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 -Much cooler temperatures expected to continue this weekend, including possible frost conditions over portions of northern Arkansas Sunday morning -Warming trend back to above normal levels are possible by the middle of next week -No significant rainfall is expected for the next week or so && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Radar early this morning shows scattered showers across parts of central and north central Arkansas. The showers are associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across the central and northern plain dragging an attendant cold front through the state through this afternoon. Behind the front, cooler and breezy conditions will develop and then persist across the state through at least early this afternoon across the state. Winds will veer from south/southeast ahead of the boundary to north/northwest behind the boundary. Winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common with gusts to 30 mph possible across the state. By this evening, the upper trough will push into the eastern Great Lakes region and cold front will exit the state, with northwest flow becoming established across the state. Model guidance keeps the state within northwest flow through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. The aforementioned trough that is dragging a cold front through the state today, will move to the lower Appalachians region on Saturday. The trough will move to the Carolinas region by Sunday with both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing the trough deepening by Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, high pressure over the Bay of Campeche will expand northward into the western and northwest Gulf coast region Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler and drier air behind the front filtering into the state will lead to morning lows across the state in the 40s across the southern two thirds of the state this weekend, Lows across the northern half will be in the mid to upper 30s on Saturday and Sunday. Some patchy frost in higher terrain areas is not out of the question. High temperatures this weekend will run around 5 degrees below normal for the state through the end of the weekend. As we head into the new work week, high pressure will continue to expand northward into the central Plains by late Sunday into Monday, as the upper trough and cut off low that brought cooler and drier air to the state continues to strengthen/deepen over the eastern seaboard. The upper trough will push off the eastern US coast as into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday. This will allow for the ridge axis of the ridge to move westward toward Arkansas with winds veer from north/northwest on Sunday night into Monday to south/southeast by Monday across the state. With the return of south to southeast flow across the state, temperatures will remain to above normal by the middle of the next work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The breezy NW winds will gradually weaken this evening for most sites. Very dry air will remain across the area...keeping VFR condtions dominant. Winds may gust again on Sat afternoon...with the windier conditions over SERN sections. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 45 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 45 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 39 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 45 67 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 46 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 48 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 42 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 42 62 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 45 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 45 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 44 67 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 45 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 46 67 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ065>069. && $$ DISCUSSION...76 AVIATION...62