FXUS64 KLZK 220742 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 -A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place across the entire state of Arkansas for storms which are expected to impact the state between this early afternoon into the late evening. -The main hazards with storms which become severe will be damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail. -High temperatures across most of central and southern Arkansas will manage to reach and/or eclipse the century mark before the frontal boundary and associated scattered storms move into Arkansas. -Heat Advisory remains in effect across southern Arkansas as heat index values will manage to reach between 105 and 109 for a period of several hours before storms are expected move into this part of the state this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The continued trend of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas will remain. An upper lvl shortwave progged to move over the state will allow a weak front to drop down into Arkansas by early afternoon and track southward across the state. The airmass ahead of this advancing weak cold front will be hot and humid with plenty of CAPE allowing for the expected development of scattered thunderstorms across the state between early this afternoon into late this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has designated the entire state of Arkansas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today with the main hazards possible as damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail with any storm that does manage to become severe. Before the anticipated arrival of the weak cold front and associated scattered convection, high temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas. A challenging high temperature forecast for today as locations across the state, especially in central and southern Arkansas will likely experience compression heating just ahead of the advancing front where temperatures will quickly, but briefly rise a few degrees before the frontal boundary overtakes a location. For this reason and overall trends during this heatwave have trended toward NBM 75% and NBM 90% values. For the remainder of the forecast period, from Sunday through the upcoming workweek, expect hot temperatures to persist with a few days of relief possible which would lower temperatures a tad to normal values for this time of the year as multiple weak frontal boundaries are anticipated to move across the state which will promote appreciable POP chances (expected on Monday) and modest POP chances (on Wednesday into Wednesday Night). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Expect VFR flight category for the majority of the forecast period between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning across all sites. However, beginning early Saturday afternoon -TSRA will begin to impact most sites for the remainder of the forecast period. The threat of -TSRA has been captured by TEMPO groups at each terminal. Expect if a site is impacted directly by -TSRA, then VSBY may drop to as low as MVFR or briefly IFR flight category. Surface wind gusts may reach in excess of 35 knots in the strongest of storms. Timing will likely be better captured at the 12Z issuance of the TAF forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 99 71 94 70 / 60 20 0 50 Camden AR 103 72 99 73 / 10 30 10 20 Harrison AR 92 68 89 68 / 40 20 20 60 Hot Springs AR 102 73 97 73 / 30 20 10 30 Little Rock AR 102 74 96 74 / 50 30 10 50 Monticello AR 102 74 97 75 / 20 30 10 30 Mount Ida AR 101 71 96 72 / 30 20 10 20 Mountain Home AR 93 69 90 68 / 40 20 10 60 Newport AR 97 71 93 71 / 50 30 0 40 Pine Bluff AR 100 72 96 72 / 30 20 10 40 Russellville AR 99 72 94 72 / 30 20 10 40 Searcy AR 99 71 94 71 / 60 20 0 50 Stuttgart AR 99 73 95 73 / 50 30 10 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74