FXUS64 KMAF 082235 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 535 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 533 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms (10-20%) will be possible this afternoon over the Big Bend and over higher terrain areas Thursday and Friday. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An upper-level ridge continues to extend across the Desert Southwest and into southeast New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon. Deep layer subsidence underneath this feature is largely suppressing cloud cover across our region early this afternoon except for a few high-based cumulus. Weak upslope flow and ascent along the northern periphery of a weak shortwave impulse over northern Mexico could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Big Bend region this afternoon, but any activity that develops should diminish by early this evening. Low temperatures early Thursday morning should average near normal with readings mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The upper-level ridge will continue to stretch from southern California into west Texas again on Thursday. Mostly sunny skies can expected again across our region with hot temperatures in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees over most places. Weak upslope flow could result in the development of a couple of isolated cells over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon, but POPs will be 20% or less. Lows Thursday night remain seasonably warm in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 The upper-level ridge will strengthen over the Four Corners and adjacent Rocky Mountains and northern High Plains Friday through the weekend. Isolated afternoon convection will remain confined to higher terrain areas both Friday and Saturday with mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures persisting over the rest of the forecast area. An easterly to northeasterly mid-level flow pattern generally returns late this weekend into early next week as our forecast area becomes positioned to the south of the building ridge over the central and northern Plains. Medium range and ensemble guidance indicate an increase in deep layer moisture with this pattern with precipitable water values rising to between 1.5- 1.75 inches early next week. Shortwave impulses in the mid-level flow along with the increased moisture and afternoon heating/ instability will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of our region Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most areas both days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a cu field late Thursday morning/early afternoon, mainly West Texas terminals, w/bases ~ 4.5-8 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 70 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 61 92 63 95 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 &&.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...99