FXUS64 KMAF 090636
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
136 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over higher terrain 
  areas this afternoon. 

- Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a
  more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of
  showers/storms Sunday through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Little change in the short term as mid to upper ridging over the 
Intermountain West continues to provide warm and dry, fairly 
uneventful weather. Low (less than 15%) shower/storm chances today 
and tomorrow afternoon, with the greatest risks being lightning, 
strong winds, and brief heavy rainfall. Rainfall accumulations are 
expected to remain below a few tenths of an inch due to low RH and 
PWATs staying below 1.00". Highs 95F-100F, 100F-105F along the Pecos 
River and Presidio Valley, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend are 
forecast. While not unseasonably warm, it is still advised to take 
proper heat precautions if outdoors, drink plenty of water, and 
remain out of direct sunlight during the hottest part of the day. 
Accompanying this persistent warm weather will be lee troughing 
remaining to the west of the forecast area. This means 
south/southeast winds increasing to the 15 to 20 mph range each 
afternoon/evening into the overnight will continue to be the story. 
Dew point temperatures stay in the 50s and 60s F, mid 40s to lower 
50s F Presidio Valley into northern Guadalupes with pronounced 
south/southeast winds even after winds decrease overnight. This 
means overnight cooling will continue to be limited, resulting in 
lows in the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F cooler regions of northern Lea 
County and adjacent foothills to the Marfa Plateau and Trans Pecos, 
and 60F-65F for the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos. Along the 
Rio Grande, lows will continue to remain in the 75F-80F range. An 
upper air and near surface pattern change will deliver "cooler" 
temperatures by Saturday and shower/storm chances areawide by late 
weekend into early next week. More details on these pattern changes 
can be found in the Long Term Discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A cooling trend is forecast to take shape across the region 
beginning Saturday as the upper-level ridge transitions from the 
Four Corners region into the Central Rockies. Saturday is expected 
to be the warmest day of the extended forecast period with highs 
ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. Upslope 
flow and weak disturbances in the flow aloft will create a low 
chance (10-30%) of isolated storms over the higher terrain. Sunday 
through early next week, easterly to northeasterly flow aloft will 
return to the region, accompanied by shortwave impulses rounding the 
periphery of the ridge. As a result, cooler temperatures in the 
upper 80s to low 90s along with increased rain/storm chances are 
expected areawide. Medium to long range guidance has Precipitable 
Water values (PWATs) slightly above the 90th climatological 
percentile per SPC Sounding Climatology, signaling deep layer 
moisture with this pattern. Ensemble guidance is in agreement with 
the upper-level ridge becoming more elongated across portions of the 
Northern High Plains by mid next week, shifting winds aloft easterly 
to southeasterly. This pattern again favors daily rain/storm chances 
with cooler than normal temperatures for mid July standards. 

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a
cu field late Thursday morning/early afternoon, w/bases ~ 6-8 kft
AGL. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                101  74 103  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            99  73 100  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           93  70  94  70 /  10   0  10   0 
Hobbs                    98  71  99  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    92  63  95  63 /   0   0  10   0 
Midland Intl Airport     98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                    101  74 102  73 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99