FXUS64 KMAF 091711 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over higher terrain areas this afternoon. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms Sunday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Little change in the short term as mid to upper ridging over the Intermountain West continues to provide warm and dry, fairly uneventful weather. Low (less than 15%) shower/storm chances today and tomorrow afternoon, with the greatest risks being lightning, strong winds, and brief heavy rainfall. Rainfall accumulations are expected to remain below a few tenths of an inch due to low RH and PWATs staying below 1.00". Highs 95F-100F, 100F-105F along the Pecos River and Presidio Valley, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend are forecast. While not unseasonably warm, it is still advised to take proper heat precautions if outdoors, drink plenty of water, and remain out of direct sunlight during the hottest part of the day. Accompanying this persistent warm weather will be lee troughing remaining to the west of the forecast area. This means south/southeast winds increasing to the 15 to 20 mph range each afternoon/evening into the overnight will continue to be the story. Dew point temperatures stay in the 50s and 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F Presidio Valley into northern Guadalupes with pronounced south/southeast winds even after winds decrease overnight. This means overnight cooling will continue to be limited, resulting in lows in the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F cooler regions of northern Lea County and adjacent foothills to the Marfa Plateau and Trans Pecos, and 60F-65F for the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos. Along the Rio Grande, lows will continue to remain in the 75F-80F range. An upper air and near surface pattern change will deliver "cooler" temperatures by Saturday and shower/storm chances areawide by late weekend into early next week. More details on these pattern changes can be found in the Long Term Discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A cooling trend is forecast to take shape across the region beginning Saturday as the upper-level ridge transitions from the Four Corners region into the Central Rockies. Saturday is expected to be the warmest day of the extended forecast period with highs ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. Upslope flow and weak disturbances in the flow aloft will create a low chance (10-30%) of isolated storms over the higher terrain. Sunday through early next week, easterly to northeasterly flow aloft will return to the region, accompanied by shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge. As a result, cooler temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s along with increased rain/storm chances are expected areawide. Medium to long range guidance has Precipitable Water values (PWATs) slightly above the 90th climatological percentile per SPC Sounding Climatology, signaling deep layer moisture with this pattern. Ensemble guidance is in agreement with the upper-level ridge becoming more elongated across portions of the Northern High Plains by mid next week, shifting winds aloft easterly to southeasterly. This pattern again favors daily rain/storm chances with cooler than normal temperatures for mid July standards. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions accompanied by breezy south/southeast winds are ahead during the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 103 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 72 99 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 69 92 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 71 99 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 95 62 94 / 0 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 74 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 101 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...95