FXUS64 KMAF 091815
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over higher terrain areas
  both this afternoon and Friday afternoon. 

- Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday before
  cooler conditions set in through early next week.

- Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through early next week,
  especially south of the I-20 Corridor. The potential for
  multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Upper ridging centered near the Desert Southwest and northwestern 
Mexico remains the dominant weather maker within the Short Term 
period. Hot and dry conditions continue for most across the region. 
Highs in the upper 90s to triple digits are expected Friday 
afternoon. The hottest conditions will be near/along the river 
valleys, where highs are progged to reach just shy of 105 degrees 
(up to 107 degrees in portions of the Big Bend). Tonight and Friday 
night, temperatures generally fall to the 70s. Although most stay 
dry, breezy south/southeast winds bring low (<20%) rain chances to 
the higher terrain and portions of New Mexico each afternoon of the 
period. The best odds of isolated showers/storms will be near the 
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Some models indicate a possibility 
for rainfall over parts of Eddy and Lea counties Friday evening. 
Conditions trend slightly cooler and wetter ahead. More details 
below!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The current forecast remains on track, with warm and predominantly 
dry conditions early this weekend giving way to a more active and 
cooler period through the beginning of next week. The upper ridge 
currently centered to the west will continue to weaken its effects 
over the area Saturday as it shifts toward the Northern High Plains. 
This transition will allow upper-level disturbances to move over the 
forecast area, leading to increased chances for rain and 
thunderstorms by Sunday. A weak cold front will drop into the region 
early next week, serving as a focus for additional lift and 
thunderstorm development through Wednesday. Moist, easterly upslope 
flow will persist at the surface during this time. 

Due to increased moisture and the potential for multiple rounds of 
showers and thunderstorms, there is a risk of flooding across 
portions of the region early nest week. Additionally, while cooler 
temperatures are expected, multiple rounds of thunderstorms may 
impact outdoor activities. Expect a cooling trend starting Sunday, 
with afternoon highs moderating into the mid-80s to low-90s Tuesday 
through Thursday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions accompanied by breezy south/southeast winds are
ahead during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  99  74  98 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 74 103  74  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   73  98  74  96 /   0   0   0  10 
Fort Stockton            72  99  71  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           70  94  69  92 /   0  10   0   0 
Hobbs                    71  99  70  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    63  95  62  94 /   0  10   0  10 
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   73  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     73 101  73  98 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...95