FXUS64 KMAF 150603 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 103 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through Friday across much of west Texas. A few storms may also become severe, posing a threat for mainly damaging winds and large hail this afternoon and evening. - A front Thursday night/Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region through the weekend. - Thursday night/Friday morning's front also brings breezy northeasterly winds to the area. High gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Area radars show round #1 of convection has ended for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/CAMs suggesting round #2 commencing around 20Z or so. Latest KMAF radar bias is 0.71, suggesting the airmass is convective, as cells are still producing hail to some extent. That said, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.75". The 100th percentile is 1.44", and the (now old) record is 1.69". With any luck, tonight will transition from a severe to hydrologic event as remnants of Hurricane Simon become better entrenched. Tonight, best chances for convection will be from the Big Bend northeast through the Western Low Rolling Plains, w/deep layer shear of 40-50 kts supporting a few supercells. MRMS precipitation estimates for the past 24 hours indicate saturated soils will continue the flood threat, as well. A 35 kt LLJ and abundant cloud cover will keep overnight minimums warm...around 15 F above climatology. Thursday, the Four Corners trough will eject into the Central Plains, only to have a secondary trough develop in its wake. This feature will quickly dig SW to the SoCal/Baja border by Thursday evening, while at the surface, a cold front begins intruding upon the region. The front, precipitation, and cloud cover will keep highs right around normal. Best rain chances will continue over the southeastern CWA, w/hopefully just flash flooding being the main concern by this times. Thursday night, w/the loss of whatever diurnal heating was to be had Thursday, the cold front will surge southward, yielding the coolest temperatures yet this Fall as lows plunge to within a degree or so of normal. This front looks strong enough for gap winds in the pass, and we've issue a watch for this. Best chances for rain will be in the Big Bend Area, where the highest moisture will reside. Flash flooding in the park and rises on the Rio Grande should be the main concerns by this time. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Northeasterly winds become breezy and temperatures plummet areawide behind Thursday night/Friday morning's front. Strong cold air advection keeps highs in the upper 50s and low 60s across west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday afternoon. As mentioned in the Short Term, high gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the front through Saturday morning. The front also pushes the best rain chances (50-80%) southward towards the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, Presidio Valley, and Lower Trans-Pecos Friday morning and into the afternoon. By late Friday afternoon and early evening, winds generally begin to weaken and rain chances diminish across the area. Saturday morning will feature some of the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season. Lows dip into the 40s for most locations, with upper 30s in the higher terrain and usual cold spots. Continued northeasterly winds keep Saturday's highs similar to Friday's, albeit a degree or two warmer. Likewise, lows Sunday morning end up a degree or two warmer overall than Saturday morning. From Sunday through at least the middle of next week, a more robust warming trend develops. Highs Sunday top out in the 60s and low 70s for most as winds veer to the south again. By Monday and Tuesday, temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s become commonplace. As far as rain goes, from Saturday through early next week most locations look to stay dry, with chances staying generally below 15%. By the middle of next week, the NBM reintroduces low (10-30%) rain chances for portions of the area as another system nears. However, differences in the timing and location of this system exist between long range models, which keeps confidence low at this time. Sprang && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cold frontal passage expected between 8-12z for most sites with FST seeing passage later in the day. Scattered showers and storms develop with the front. Amendments will be needed based on radar trends. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 51 60 41 / 60 70 10 0 Carlsbad 81 53 63 43 / 0 10 10 0 Dryden 82 53 59 45 / 70 100 90 0 Fort Stockton 78 49 57 42 / 70 100 70 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 46 52 39 / 0 20 10 0 Hobbs 76 48 58 39 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 74 41 50 35 / 60 90 70 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 51 59 42 / 60 60 10 0 Odessa 77 51 58 42 / 60 60 10 0 Wink 80 51 61 42 / 30 50 20 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...93