FXUS64 KMAF 151828 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through late Friday morning across much of west Texas. - A cold front today through Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. - Breezy northeasterly winds behind the cold front will occur tonight through Friday. High gap winds are expected in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Area radars show round #2 of convection has ended for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/CAMs suggesting round #3 commencing around 20Z or so. KMAF radar bias has increased from below 1 to 1.21 over the past few hours, suggesting the airmass has transitioned from convective to tropical. This is further evidenced by heavy rainfall reported over the past few hours. Supporting this, the KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.68". The 100th percentile is 1.43", and the (now old) record is 1.47". Latest mesoanalysis shows a prefrontal trough moving through the area, with a cold front following this evening. W/drier air advecting in behind these features, best chances for convection tonight will be south of I-20. With the airmass having gone tropical, the current flood watch looks on track. Latest NBM/MOS suggest wind advisories are warranted over the higher terrain as the front moves south, and the high wind warning has been shortened temporally to end Friday evening. CAA behind the front will usher in the coolest temperatures yet this fall, with overnight minimums coming in ~ 5 F or less above climatology. Friday, showers are possible along and south of I-10, but will quickly diminish to the southwest as the front continues pushing south. CAA will be in full force, with highs a good ~ 15-20 F below normal, keeping all locations in the 50s and 60s. Friday night, as post-frontal gradients/winds relax under clearing skies, lows will drop a good 10 F or so from tonight, putting all locations in the 30s and 40s. The highest elevations of the Davis Mountains may even see a light freeze. This front will definitely brrrring in Fall proper. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cooler temperatures commence this weekend as surface high pressure centered over the Southern Great Plains reinforces cooler air behind the cold front. This yields afternoon highs in the upper 50s for most, with low 60s expected in a few locations. From Sunday onward, return flow and mostly sunny skies bring a warming trend. At this time, highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s by the middle of next week. Low chances of rain (10-30%) return to the western half of the area Tuesday and Wednesday as shortwave impulses move through southwest flow aloft. Greening && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 KMAF, KFST, and, to a lesser extent, KPEQ will bounce in and out of MVFR cigs this afternoon and overnight as bouts of convection move through the area as a cold front pushes south. KINK/KCNM/KHOB should remaIN VFR. Expect gusty winds after fropa through the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 52 60 39 60 / 40 0 0 0 Carlsbad 54 64 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 52 59 43 59 / 100 50 0 0 Fort Stockton 49 58 39 57 / 90 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 47 54 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs48 59 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 41 51 34 54 / 80 40 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 52 59 40 58 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 52 59 40 58 / 30 0 0 0 Wink 54 62 40 59 / 20 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Saturday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Flood Watch through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Friday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...99