FXUS64 KMAF 181705 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1205 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame. - Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. - Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Another hot and windy day is expected across the region, particularly over southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas. Antecedent dry conditions combined with the dry air will make for critical fire weather conditions. More information on that can be found below in the fire weather discussion. Many locations will reach into the mid to upper 90s with a number of spots near the century mark. Winds will decay by tonight, but temperatures will only fall into the 60s and 70s. A cold front approaches the region by Tuesday morning and slowly stalls near the Pecos River Valley. The front and present dryline combine to increase storm chances across the eastern portions of the CWA. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Depending on the timing and strength of the front, temperatures will be a touch cooler for most compared to today, though will still reach into the low to mid 90s. Highs in the 100s will be seen along the Rio Grande. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday night and into Wednesday sees an upper level disturbance move across from the west. This combined with the dryline moved further west will lead to higher rain chances across most of the region for Wednesday and into Thursday. Strong to severe storms will be possible on both days, but it remains to be seen what hazards these storms will contain and just how much rain will fall and where. Below normal temperatures will take hold from Wednesday through at least Saturday as easterly flow and a favorable upper level environment keep temperatures on the cool side for mid to late May. Low (10-20%) rain chances hold on from Friday and into the weekend particularly across the Davis Mountains and eastern portions of the CWA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions forecast throughout the TAF period. Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots at terminals from beginning of the period, with winds decreasing after 23Z-01Z. Winds shift to southeast for terminals on Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau 00Z- 04Z this evening, and for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos 05Z-08Z tonight. Winds shift back to westerly thereafter, then backing to northerly as a cold front develops from northeast to southwest from 14Z into end of the period Tuesday morning. From Tuesday morning into early afternoon, there is a low to medium (25% to 40%) chance of showers/storms with brief MVFR or lower conditions possible at terminals on the northeast Permian Basin. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Have expanded the inherited Red Flag Warning to include most of Culberson County as well as Andrews County. Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will make for critical fire weather conditions across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. An upper level low moving into the Rockies will provide the increasing southwesterly winds that not only aide in fire spread, but can also be attributed to the expected above normal temperatures today. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearby dryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 90 61 79 / 10 30 40 50 Carlsbad 63 94 61 84 / 0 0 10 50 Dryden 73 97 68 88 / 0 30 20 40 Fort Stockton 67 98 64 88 / 0 10 20 40 Guadalupe Pass 61 85 61 80 / 0 0 0 30 Hobbs 59 91 57 76 / 0 0 10 70 Marfa 54 92 53 88 / 0 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 69 93 62 80 / 0 10 30 60 Odessa 69 93 63 80 / 0 10 30 60 Wink 63 96 63 84 / 0 0 0 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...94