FXUS64 KMEG 072314
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
614 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase through
  Friday. Heat indices may reach Heat Advisory criteria as early
  as Thursday for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
  The heat will continue into the weekend.

- A slow-moving upper level disturbance will aid in the
  development of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday
  afternoon. Storm coverage will become more isolated on Thursday
  and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A slow-moving upper level trough extended from central AR through
the lower Mississippi River Valley at midday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will focus mainly along and east to the trough
axis through early evening, aided by deep layer shear up to 25KT
and mixed layer CAPE to 1500J/kg. HRRR depicts DCAPE less than
700J/kg, suggesting limited microburst potential.

The upper level trough will weaken through Wednesday, and lift
out Wednesday night, beginning a warmer and drier phase of the
forecast. While an isolated storm or two can't be ruled out
Thursday and Friday, the main storm track will extend from the
northern Great Plains into the middle-Mississipp and Ohio River
valleys. A series of shortwaves will pass through that region,
dropping midlevel heights and reinforcing a stationary front
across southern MO and Ohio River Valley. Midlevel heights will
lower over the Midsouth by Sunday, as a northern branch trough
settles in the Ozarks underneath an amplifying ridge over the
northern Great Plains. Low convective inhibition, numerous
surface boundaries and PWAT in excess of 2 inches suggest decent
storm coverage on Sunday.

Early next week, east/northeast flow aloft will prevail over the
Midsouth, around the southern periphery of a 600dam 500mb height
ridge centered over the central plains. GEFS and EPS mean PWAT
values decrease to 1.4 to 1.6 inches, as subsidence settles in
from the north. Depending on the position of the upper ridge
axis, rain chances may be limited to isolated daytime
thunderstorms south of I-40 by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Light and variable winds are expected overnight as a surface
boundary remains stalled across the area. Any saturated surfaces
may see some reduction in visibility due to fog development. MVFR
visibilities are most likely in any fog development, but MKL has
the highest probability of IFR visibility occurring. Slight
southward propagation of the boundary is anticipated overnight,
which could initiate showers and thunderstorms earlier than
normal for a summertime pattern. The HRRR and NAMnest have some
showers near MEM as early as 14z, but the best chances of a
thunderstorm remain confined to the afternoon hours. PPROB30s
were carried for thunderstorm chances. Overall, expect VFR
conditions outside of any fog or thunderstorms.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the Mid-South this
week. Relative humidity levels are expected to stay above
40 percent with light 20ft winds. Showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast daily during peak heating.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...DNM