FXUS64 KMEG 181831
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high
  temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast
  by Tuesday afternoon, with a low confidence severe weather
  threat. The main concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm
  would be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily
  beginning late tomorrow through the remainder of the upcoming
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This morning's upper air analysis depicts an upper level ridge
over portions of the Carolinas and the Southeast U.S. with an
upper-level trough located over the Rockies. Southwest flow aloft
is present from the Southern Plains up to the Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes Region. Latest surface analysis places a surface
low over southern Minnesota with a weak cold front trailing
southwest into the Central and Southern Plains. A warm and humid
atmosphere is in place across the Mid-South with 12 PM
temperatures in the 80s.

Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a small cluster of showers and
thunderstorms over portions of northeast Arkansas. This
convective activity is associated with a subtle, but weak mid-
level shortwave trough moving across portions of the Middle
Mississippi Valley. Latest mesoanalysis yields surface-based CAPE
values around 2000 J/kg, with weak mid-level lapse rates and
overall shear generally less than 20 kts. Short-term CAMs
indicate a low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms
north of I-40 towards the MO/KY border into this evening but
confidence remains low with the overall coverage in the weakly
sheared environment.

Short-term models continue to indicate a weak cold front dropping
into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Upstream showers
and thunderstorms are expected to weaken as they move into the
Lower Mississippi on Tuesday. This convective activity will
eventually produce outflow boundaries, which will provide a focus
for afternoon convection. Shear is expected to remain weak with
best upper-level support remaining displaced to the north. Thus,
convective development is expected to occur mainly during the
mid/late afternoon during peak heating with a mostly unorganized
pulse type convective mode. Overall confidence remains low with
the severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday with the threat
waning by early Tuesday evening with the loss of daytime
instability.

Mid to long range models indicate this front will remain stalled
out across the area through late week. Precipitable water values
will remain high around 1.75 inches with any heavy rainfall
threat remaining localized in the absence of any appreciable
upper-level support. This boundary is anticipated to retreat
north as a warm front with rain chances continuing into the
weekend, especially during peak heating. Temperatures will remain
near normal through most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A low chance for MVFR ceilings will exist around sunrise Tuesday
at MEM and TUP and wasn't included in TAFs due to low confidence.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist through most of
the period at TAF sites. An approaching cold front will provide a
focus for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development mainly late Tuesday afternoon. A PROB30 has been
introduced at MEM for 20-24Z. Conditions still remain favorable
for marginal LLWS at JBR later tonight. Elevated south winds are
expected at most sites throughout the period with gusts confined
mainly to daytime hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with
minRH values remaining above 40%. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will move across the Mid-South beginning on Tuesday
through the remainder of the week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC