FXUS62 KMFL 080528 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 128 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - The heat will be the primary threat for the next couple days as overall rain chances remain lower. Heat indices will run from around 105 to 110 degrees each day, creating moderate to extreme HeatRisk each day. Wear light-weight, light color clothing and stay hydrated. - As drier air works into the area, rain chances decline for the next few days. Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible, with gusty winds and frequent lightning remaining the primary threats. - Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Weak ridging is in place across the FL peninsula as the subtropical ridge axis remains well to the east. In response, a light easterly flow continues throughout the column. This flow is beginning to advect a drier and more stable airmass into the region from the Caribbean, becoming more pronounced over the next 24 hours or so. As this drier air mixes into the region, the overall potential for thunderstorm activity will decline. There is still a window tomorrow morning for what will likely be lower-topped showers to develop before the drier air mixes through the column. However, once the sea breeze pushes inland, what thunderstorm activity remains should transition inland. Along the SWFL coast, this won't be quite be as pronounced. With a light easterly flow, this favors a slightly delayed sea breeze initiation. When the east coast sea breeze collides with the west coast sea breeze later in the day, the added moisture pooling should still support some thunderstorms. However, with some drier air, overall coverage is still expected to be lower; and unlike the east coast, there won't be any morning storms. With lower rain chances, there is an elevated risk for heat-related impacts. Early storms tomorrow along the FL East coast will favor higher dewpoints (and thus higher apparent or "feels-like" temperatures) until that moisture can mix out. Even once this occurs, the increase in ambient air temperature will negate any relief. Thus, heat indices up to around 110 degrees should be expected in the east coast metro. Meanwhile, a warm and humid start across the interior and SWFL will still favor high heat indices; maybe slightly lower through the morning, but ticking up to around 110 as daytime heating progresses. This will push the HeatRisk into the high category for the day. If spending time outdoors, be sure to wear appropriate clothing. Stay hydrated and in the shade as much as possible, take breaks, and know the signs of heat-related illnesses. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 While the overall synoptic patterns remains fairly static into next week, the dry air will not stick around for days. As the weekend approaches, the drier air will advect out of the region, once again replaced by deeper moisture. This favors better shower and thunderstorm chances across the region once again for Friday and Saturday. However, another pocket of drier air looks to advect into the region late into the weekend, with lower rain chances again on for Sunday and Monday. Once again, by the middle of next week, moisture rebounds and greater thunderstorm coverage returns. However, there will be some adjustments to the timing of thunderstorms as the ridge axis shifts farther away. In response to this shift, the flow will turn a bit more southerly (and more WSW along the SWFL coast). Overall, though, this won't lead to any drastic changes across the region. On days and in areas where there is better storm coverage, the overall impact from the heat will be lower. On the drier days, the heat impacts will again be more elevated with limited relief from thunderstorm activity. Regardless of thunderstorm activity, it will be important to continue practicing good heat safety. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Little to no rain chances across south Florida today. VFR should prevail through the TAF. Easterly flow will increase to around 10 knots along the east coast today, but for the west coast a light onshore wind will develop as the seabreeze fights the background easterly flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Drier conditions are expected across Atlantic waters beginning tonight and lasting through at least Thursday. As the subtropical ridge axis builds into the area, this may bring an uptick in winds and seas beginning Wednesday nigh. Winds will generally remain out of the east or southeast for the next several days, gradually subsiding again by late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 82 94 82 / 10 0 0 10 West Kendall 93 79 94 79 / 10 0 0 10 Opa-Locka 94 81 95 81 / 10 0 0 10 Homestead 93 81 93 81 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 83 93 82 / 10 0 0 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 82 92 82 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 95 82 96 83 / 10 0 0 10 West Palm Beach 92 80 93 81 / 20 0 0 0 Boca Raton 91 82 92 82 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 94 78 96 79 / 20 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>070-072-074-075-168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...99