FXUS62 KMFL 152242 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 642 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 639 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across Southwest Florida this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered activity expected for Southeast Florida mainly late morning through midday. - Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across the region for the end of this week with maximum heat index values in the 100-105F range. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. && .UPDATE... Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No major changes to the near term forecast. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed around the lake region early this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should increase mid to late afternoon into the early evening across SW FL along the Gulf coast sea breeze. Overnight conditions will be dry over most of South FL with some occasional coastal showers along the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For the end of this week, surface high pressure will be set up over the western Atlantic to end the week along with a mid-level ridge propagating from the southeastern US to the offshore western Atlantic waters. This will occur in tandem with a synoptic scale trough amplifying across the central US. As a result of the mid- level high shifting further east, low-level and mid-level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly and usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs around 1.8-2 inches or slightly more) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. With the surface high pressure over the western Atlantic setting up an easterly wind regime across the area, the most widespread showers and storms should focus across SW Florida as the Gulf breeze gets pinned, while some isolated to scattered showers and storms form over the east coast metro areas mainly between late morning and midday. Some storms may contain stronger wind gusts and periods of heavy rainfall, but overall parameters are lacking in terms of strong convection potential as well as low flooding risk. However, an isolated occurrence of poor drainage urban flooding cannot be entirely ruled out. Flow will shift a little more southeasterly on Friday as the trough over the central US begins to advect towards the northeast US and pushes the ridge over the Southeast offshore. This southerly flow pattern will support ongoing deep moisture advection, and with low level out of a SE/ESE direction, the focus for showers and storms on Friday will be across both interior and SW Florida, and perhaps stretching into Palm Beach county with PoPs in these areas in the 70- 85% range. Flow will be a bit weaker on Friday compared to Thursday, so there will be a higher risk for flooding impacts on Friday. High temperatures for the end of this week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Elevated moisture will keep dew points and corresponding heat index values elevated in the 100-105F range as well, posing moderate to major HeatRisk across the region as we typically don't see this level of heat this late in the season. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moving into the weekend, the speed of a propagating frontal boundary off of the trough that is swinging across the central and eastern US will be a big player in the amount of rainfall that we may see over the weekend. Ensembles plus much of the deterministic guidance are generally coming together at this point with the front pushing into central and perhaps the northernmost portions of the South Florida forecast area Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday. The steadiest rain would be expected directly ahead of the front, leading to the most widespread rainfall likely to occur on Saturday before the front pushes out the deeper moisture from portions of the region. Potential rainfall amounts are still heavily uncertain, but the latest 90th percentile 24-hour QPF is between 2-4" for Saturday and lower for Sunday, suggesting that even in a worst case scenario we may only need to be concerned for localized flooding. Nevertheless, we still need another day or two to get a more accurate perception of how much rain is possible in different time spans this weekend. Following the front stalling out late this weekend and into early next week, there is better agreement across the ensemble guidance that a steep pressure gradient will set up over the entire state of Florida, bringing with it a jump in easterly winds. The exact timing of the onset of winds here will be tied to the speed and direction of the high pressure system building behind the front which is not completely resolved yet, but less widespread rain is expected as we move into next week and extending into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Easterly winds 5-10kts overnight becoming ESE 10-15 kts after 15Z Friday. An afternoon westerly breeze is expected at APF. Scattered coastal showers are possible along the east coast metro overnight. VCTS at APF during the afternoon and early evening hours Friday. Brief flight restrictions and erratic winds possible in and near thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected across the local waters for the end of this week. Winds will shift to the north/north- northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north. This will coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each day as well, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 90 78 88 / 30 30 30 90 West Kendall 78 90 77 87 / 20 30 30 90 Opa-Locka 79 90 77 88 / 30 30 30 90 Homestead 79 90 77 88 / 20 30 30 80 Fort Lauderdale 79 89 77 87 / 40 40 30 90 N Ft Lauderdale 79 89 77 87 / 40 40 30 90 Pembroke Pines 78 90 77 88 / 30 40 30 90 West Palm Beach 78 89 76 86 / 50 60 40 90 Boca Raton 78 88 77 86 / 50 50 30 90 Naples 75 89 75 84 / 30 40 40 80 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CMF