FNUS76 KMFR 220056
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Picture Rock...OR-LAD
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
556 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 PDT on August 21. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
STRONG GUSTS AND LOW RH...

.DISCUSSION...

Deep mixing has occured today with dry air in the lower levels.
Expecting an inversion to start developing after sunset, further
strengthening overnight with poor to moderate overnight 
recoveries. The inversion overnight will limit mixing to only the
lowest several hundred feet. Mixing will likely start around
9am to 10am Saturday morning. On Saturday afternoon, expecting 
conditions to worsen slightly compared to today (Friday) with 
deeper mixing, and drier air in the lower levels. Wind speeds will
be stronger tomorrow (Saturday) as well. As a result, a Red Flag 
Warning is in effect for this wildfire location tomorrow due to a 
combination of strong gusty wind and low RH.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). 
Chance of lightning.5 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 60. 
Max humidity........43 percent. 
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds up to 5 mph with gusts to 
                    around 8 mph shifting to the south around 2 mph 
                    overnight. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 11 to 14 mph with gusts to 
                    around 21 mph shifting to the south 5 to 6 mph 
                    overnight. 
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 13 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). 
Chance of lightning.0 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 84. 
Min humidity........13 percent. 
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds up to 5 to 10 mph with gusts  
                    around 15 mph. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 
                    around 28 mph. 
Mixing height.......9300 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 22 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). 
Chance of lightning.0 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 52. 
Max humidity........59 percent. 
Eye level winds.....West winds up to 6 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph in 
                    the evening. 
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph in 
                    the evening. 
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). 
Chance of lightning.0 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 84. 
Min humidity........13 percent. 
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds around 2 mph. 
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph. 
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 8 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 

$$
Forecaster...GUERRERO
Requested by...Zachary Hutchins
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620217.0/MFR
.DELDT 08/21/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL arturo.willis@usda.gov,orlfc@firenet.gov,admcnair@blm.gov