FXUS66 KMFR 071906
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1206 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY POINTS...

* Low chance (10-15 percent) of thunderstorms from Crater Lake
  north and northeast this afternoon.

* Typical summer weather continues through the week.

* Gusty winds and very low humidities possible east of the
  Cascades this weekend. 

* In the long term, a pattern change may bring monsoonal moisture
  and atmospheric instability. In this outcome, East Side
  thunderstorms are possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows an extensive area of marine
layer stratus along the coast, which has burned back from filling
all of the coastal valleys and much of the Umpqua Basin this
morning. Also, cumulus fields have developed along the Cascade
crest. Otherwise, conditions are mostly clear on yet another 
relatively typical summer day. 

Southern Oregon and far northern California remain under 
southwest flow aloft, between a trough extending south over the 
northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska, and broad strong 
ridging over the Four Corners and Central Plains. This will keep 
the weather in our area fairly stable, with dry conditions and 
high temperatures around 5 degrees above normal for this time of 
year, but there are a few caveats. 

The first is a very slight chance of showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm this afternoon along the Cascades from Crater Lake 
north, and to some areas to the northeast. Some residual energy, 
moisture, and instability remain behind the departing shortwave 
from yesterday, and this has already brought some cumulus 
development to that area as early as 10 am this morning. Likely,
nothing will develop, and if it does, it will be highly isolated
with little impact, but it is, as we say, a non-zero chance. 

Second, we will see the passage of a dry cold front Wednesday. 
Little will mark the passage of the fronts, other than a strong
marine push, as they will be dissipating or weakening quite a bit
before even making it onshore, but we do expect some increased 
winds Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday afternoon. Today 
looks like the breezier day, with slightly weaker winds but drier 
conditions Wednesday. Then, after a rather mundane Thursday, 
another dry front arrives this weekend, likely with stronger winds
and continued dry conditions Friday and Saturday afternoons. 
There are some fire weather concerns that arise during these 
periods, as very dry air will flow in ahead of these fronts. Most 
concerns will be concentrated over the East Side, in particular 
southern Lake County and Modoc County, but other locations such as
the Rogue and Shasta valleys will be breezy and dry as well. 

Looking beyond this weekend, model suites show the southwest flow
strengthening aloft as the offshore trough digs slightly south and
the ridge over the central US strengthens and builds north. This
would essentially set up a classic monsoonal pattern that could
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, but it is far too
soon to know the exact timing and location. We will keep an eye 
on this over the coming days and update as necessary. 

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

A marine layer will likely keep KOTH under overcast MVFR ceilings 
through most of this cycle with some relief this afternoon to a 
broken layer. Farther inland, all terminals are expected to be under 
VFR conditions through this cycle with one caveat. The marine layer 
will likely be strong enough overnight to bring MVFR ceilings to 
KRBG again. Otherwise, expecting typical diurnal wind speeds 
today/tonight. 

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Monday, July 7, 2026...Moderate north 
winds continue south of Cape Blanco, which will maintain steep seas 
through tonight. The thermal trough intensifiesWednesday, with 
gusty north winds and very steep seas expected south of Cape Blanco, 
and areas of Small Craft Advisory winds and seas spreading north to 
Cape Arago. Winds increase further Thursday, with brief gales 
possible south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough weakens Friday, but 
then returns with additional north winds and steep seas by late 
weekend. 


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Wednesday 
     to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. 

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for 
     PZZ350-370. 

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. 

&&

$$