FXUS66 KMFR 152313
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
413 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...

Except along/near the coast, we are anticipating VFR conditions 
throughout the valid TAF period with overall light wind speeds. 
Medford may experience low level wind shear tonight with a jet 
around 1000 ft at ~30 knots from the southeast while wind speeds 
are negligible at the surface. Otherwise, North Bend is forecast 
to see a marine stratus layer developing with LIFR/IFR ceilings 
starting tonight and going through much off tomorrow. 

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ 

KEY MESSAGES...

* Very warm temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon and
  again Friday.
 
* A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling
  trend. 

* Dry, mild weather expected Sunday. 

* A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with
  modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low
  chances for inland areas.

DISCUSSION...Through Friday, high pressure will remain in place 
with very warm temperatures and dry conditions. Highs are 
expected to be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for inland 
areas. Coastal areas, which got warm today (82F at North Bend and
78F at Brookings as of 1 pm), will be a bit cooler Friday as
onshore flow/marine influence gets back into the picture. Over the
interior, breezy to gusty E-SE winds will persist over the
mountains tonight into Friday morning. This will bring moderate 
to locally poor nighttime RH recoveries at higher elevations, and
then low humidity for all areas during Friday afternoon. Some 
single digit minimum RH values are expected, especially in NorCal
and east of the Cascades. This will bring elevated fire weather
risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks. 

Then, on Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. 
This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push 
will produce cloudier conditions across northwest portions of the
CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures are
expected to be near normal along the coast and into Douglas 
County but elsewhere will be around 10 degrees above normal. There
is some potential for breezy winds Saturday afternoon, especially
along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades.

Sunday expect dry and mild conditions with morning low clouds west
of the southern Oregon Cascades. 

Low pressure and a cold front will approach the coast Sunday 
night. Current model runs show the low remaining offshore as it 
gradually shifts southward Monday. This will result in most the 
rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are 30-50% for Monday/Monday 
night from the Cascades west (highest coast). Lower rain chances 
(10-30%) exist east of the Cascades and in NE California.

Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed 
into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around 
into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show 
significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern
extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. -Spilde

AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs updated early afternoon...18Z sounding 
showed 850mb winds of 25-30kt. The risk of bumpy departures/arrivals
or even LLWS lessens as vertical mixing increases for a few hours
this afternoon. However, once the sun sets this evening, the east
to southeast winds are expected to continue over the mountains,
while winds decouple from the boundary layer (surface winds go
light) as the low-level inversion redevelops. Since those ESE 
winds will be just a couple of thousand feet off the surface 
(again approximately 25-30 kt), there's an enhanced risk of low 
level wind shear at Medford Airport beginning01-03Z and lasting 
until about 15Z. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland.

VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals except for 
localized IFR/LIFR in patchy fog along the coast or coastal valleys 
tonight into Friday morning. -Spilde

MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Thursday, October 15, 2026...Conditions 
improve today as winds weaken and seas become primarily dominated by 
low westerly and southwesterly swells. A new swell will arrive 
around Saturday and push waves slightly higher this weekend. 
Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning 
Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$