FXUS66 KMFR 182116
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
216 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...

Key Points:

* Minor impacts continue the next several days  
    - Return of well above normal temperatures tomorrow   
    - These above normal temperatures continue through the weekend

* Drying trend continues through the extended forecast 
    - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time

* Elevated fire weather concerns this week
    - Combination of dry, breezy, and warm temperatures
    - Fuels fortunately keeping the overall fire threat low/moderate

Further Details:

A ridge of high pressure will maintain its position over the Pacific 
Ocean through the extended forecast. While occasional troughs 
pass over the northern tier of this high pressure, these will 
mainly impact Washington and southwest Canada. As a result, a dry
and stable airmass is likely to persist this week. The position 
of the high and an area of low pressure inland will result in a 
strong pressure gradient over the forecast area (thermal trough) 
through this stretch, so expecting diurnal breezy afternoons each
day. That said, it doesn't appear any hazards will result from 
these wind speeds. 

As we maintain the dry airmass and breezy afternoons, there will 
be at least an elevated threat for fire weather conditions each 
day. However, fuel conditions per fire agencies reveal the overall
fire weather threat will remain low to moderate. Given the low RH
values and breezy winds each afternoon, people should exercise 
caution with any outdoor activities that could cause sparks or 
flames. Bottom line is that fire season was declared early this 
year, so these precautionary actions should already be in place, 
but its especially important when we have these elevated fire
weather days.

Looking ahead, there is a chance for a change in the airmass 
around Memorial Day that could bring precipitation chances across 
the forecast area. This is technically outside of this forecast 
package, but something we will keep an eye on given the lack of 
precipitation lately. However, models are split on these chances 
so this is nothing of a "slam dunk" scenario. 

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals throughout the valid
TAF cycle. Northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated through this 
cycle as high pressure maintains over the Pacific. Main thing this
cycle will be the breezy wind speeds this afternoon, but not 
expecting these speeds to continue after sunset with speeds 
decreasing overnight in a typical diurnal fashion.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, May 18, 2026...A thermal 
trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas 
over the coastal waters much of this week. Winds will be strongest
and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through 
this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely south of
Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. 
Ensembles indicate winds will strengthen Wednesday through Friday 
with a potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions
of the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south. 

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT 
     Wednesday for PZZ356-376. 

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370. 

&&

$$