FXUS66 KMFR 191959
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1259 PM PDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warm, dry weather prevails through late this week and into this
   weekend. Warmest days Thu-Sun with temperatures about 10-15F
   above normal.
  
 - Afternoon/evening breezes should be fairly typical, though 
   occasionally gusty along the coast.
 
 - While the warm, dry conditions elevate fire weather risk, fuels
   are still in green-up/curing process and present generally low
   to moderate fire danger. 

 - Potential for a stronger trough early next week (Memorial Day)
   bringing precipitation potential, gusty winds and a cool down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure and dry NW flow aloft will keep dry 
weather going through the remainder of this week along with a 
warming trend. Overall, high temperatures today and Wednesday 
will be a few to several degrees above normal, but warmer air 
aloft will bring temperatures around 10-15F above normal Thu-Sun.
The air mass is pretty dry, but we'll get marine pushes from time
to time that will bring bouts of nighttime/morning stratus to the
coast, coastal valleys and Umpqua Basin. One such marine push is 
coming tonight, which could be deep enough to cause some spillover
clouds around the Rogue Valley Wednesday morning, but that's 
about it. By Friday pm/eve, models are showing a weak impulse 
offshore and some moisture/weak instability near the NorCal 
mountains (mainly south of here -- Sierra). This raises the idea
of thunder, but the probability of anything occurring this far 
north is 10% or less. Same goes for Saturday pm/eve. 

Looking ahead, there are indications that the ridge will begin to
break down over the weekend, with the potential for a more robust
trough to enter the Pacific Northwest around Memorial Day that 
could bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to the forecast
area. Model suites still are not in solid agreement with this 
scenario, with several differences primarily in trough strength, 
but also its timing, so confidence is also still on the low side.
This will warrant a close eye for those with plans for the 
Memorial Day holiday. Most inland areas should have a 5-10F cool 
down along with enhanced to locally gusty winds, and a chance of 
showers. -Spilde 


&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z TAFs...VFR prevails area wide late this 
morning. This will continue into this evening, then a weak impulse 
will pass over the region tonight, with a marine push expected 
through the morning hours. This will result in IFR/MVFR ceilings 
over the marine waters and along the coast, and eventually the 
coastal valleys and Umpqua Basin, including at North Bend and 
Roseburg. Marine layer depth (up to around 5000 feet) allows for the 
potential for some clouds to form and bank up against the Siskiyous 
Wednesday morning. These may cause local terrain obscuration but 
should be VFR above Medford. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail 
through Wednesday morning. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday, May 19, 2026...A thermal 
trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas 
over the coastal waters through Friday night. Winds will be 
strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. 
Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely 
south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. 
Guidance shows winds will strengthen Wednesday/Thursday with the 
potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions of the 
southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south. 

The pattern will ease some this weekend as an upper trough pushes in 
from the NW. This should bring lighter winds and lower seas, 
especially by Sunday. Model scenarios indicate another trough moving 
through Sunday night into Monday, but the strength of the trough is 
the main source of uncertainty at this time. We should get a better 
handle on this in the coming days. -Spilde 


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT 
     Wednesday for PZZ356-376. 

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370. 

&&

$$