FXUS62 KMHX 230536 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 136 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized severe threat for coastal areas Sun afternoon. Drier inland and northern areas. 2) A thunderstorm risk, some potentially severe, for Mon afternoon for coastal areas again. 3) Perhaps some drier weather for Tue, but then more unsettled pattern may return for mid to late week with sct afternoon showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another mid-level shortwave will lift northeastward through the SE and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. With a seabreeze pinned east of Hwy 17, these two features will act in tandem to produce sct thunderstorms Sun afternoon into the evening. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally svr, as 2,600+ J/KG of CAPE and 25-30+ kt of shear will be in place. Have inc pops near the coast to 40-60%, while interior zones are in the 10-20% range. Best chance of svr storms will be east of Hwy 17 stretching from around Richlands to New Bern to Engelhard. With recent heavy rains, a localized flood threat may materialize, as PW's are still in the 90th or higher percentile range. KEY MESSAGE 2...Similar setup for Mon, as area is on east side of broad level troughing with yet more shortwave energy swinging through and front hung up near the coast interacting with afternoon seabreeze. EFI for CAPE/Shear is around the 80th percentile, suggesting a severe risk if storms can develop and organize. Best chances again for eastern zones. KEY MESSAGE 3...An anomalously strong upper level trough is forecast to translate east and finally move offshore by Tue but then dampen with return of sswrly flow and moisture off the GOM. This will bring more unsettled wx back to ENC in the form of showers and storms with pops back into the 40-60% range, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. Temps will be back to slightly above climo, esp for the overnight periods as warm/humid airmass will be in place. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours. A somewhat drier airmass is beginning to advect into the eastern Carolinas this evening, and it now appears that this will have a limiting effect on stratus and reduced VIS overnight. In light of this, the TAFs have been adjusted to show a more optimistic scenario. There may still be some brief reductions to IFR/MVFR VIS at times, but the risk of longer- lasting IFR, or lower, conditions appears to be decreasing. On Sunday, a cold front will move into the area and then stall. Guidance is in good agreement with the front stalling along the coast, which should keep the TSRA risk just east of the TAF sites. It may be close for KOAJ and KEWN, but given the reduced risk, the PROB30s have been removed from both sites for now. Outlook: A front will remain stalled along the coast of the Carolinas through at least Tuesday. The front may get pulled west a bit on Monday and Tuesday as a couple of lows ride north along it. This would up the TSRA risk some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. A risk of sub-VFR conditions would accompany any TSRA risk as well. && .MARINE... Ocnl tsra will ride up over the Gulf Stream tonight, producing locally strong winds and frequent lightning. Otherwise, swrly winds remain in the 5-15 kt range with seas of 2-4 ft through Sunday. Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Cont wrly to swrly winds expected through next week, but speeds will cont in the 5-15 kt range through next week with seas no higher than 2-3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TL AVIATION...RM MARINE...TL