FXUS63 KMKX 081003 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 503 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening, with the better chances north of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Damaging winds are the main hazard, along with some hail. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding may occur later this afternoon into Thursday morning, mainly in northern portions of the area. - Showers and storms may occur again Thursday afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and hail may occur. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 503 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Storms continue to shift east across northern Wisconsin back into central Minnesota, where the low level jet nose is pointing into with focused warm air advection and frontogenesis near the frontal boundary. Some warm air and moisture advection in the low levels may help to generate a few showers and storms into the morning hours, perhaps early this afternoon, that may clip northern portions of the area. Left 20 to 40 percent chances in the forecast for this period. May see cirrus anvils move more into the area and may linger more into this morning and early afternoon, especially west. Despite this, there should be 1000 to 1500 J/kg of mean layer CAPE that develops this afternoon, with 20 to 25 knots of deep layer bulk shear. CAMs are generally showing scattered convection developing along the approaching cold front from middle to later this afternoon to the west of the area, then shifting into the area by early this evening. There remains some uncertainty with the strength of the storms if they arrive in northwest and far northern parts of the area later toward and after sunset. Still, if they arrive earlier, there should be some severe storm potential, with damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning the main hazards. Some hail may occur as well. The better chances will be north of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Locally heavy rainfall and perhaps some localized flooding impacts may linger later tonight into Thursday morning in northern portions of the area, with additional showers and storms with high precipitable water values and possible training of storms. There may be some showers and storms that develop Thursday afternoon and early evening, as the front sags south through the area. Gusty winds and hail may occur, as there is enough mean layer CAPE and shear to produce a few stronger storms. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Tonight through Thursday: Dry weather is expected to continue into tonight under high pressure. A few showers and a storm or two could brush the north toward daybreak into mid-morning Wednesday as warm air advection and deeper moisture push into the area. Storms are then likely mainly along and north of I-94 late afternoon into the evening hours as instability and moisture continue to increase ahead of an approaching shortwave. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any slow moving or training storms, as precipitable water values push 2 inches. Still think there is a chance for a few strong to severe storms given ample instability and marginal deep layer shear. Hail and strong winds are the main severe concerns. Should be plenty of time for temps to warm Wednesday before widespread clouds and precip move in, so kept high temps largely in the upper 80s. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 90 degree reading or two, especially along and south of I-94. Isolated to scattered storms are expected to hang around Wednesday night into early Thursday as instability and plenty of moisture linger while the shortwave moves through. Could see some redevelopment Thursday afternoon as the surface trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns Wed night into Thu, though wouldn't be surprised by a stronger storm or two producing some hail and gusty winds Thursday afternoon into early evening. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Friday through Tuesday: Mainly dry weather is likely from Friday into early next week as an upper ridge builds in and surface high pressure largely sits over the region. Not out of the question to see a few storms sneak over the top of the ridge into southern Wisconsin as the ridge moves in late this week and begins to flatten by mid-week next week. Overall though, dry weather should prevail much of the time along with increasing temperatures this weekend into early next week. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 503 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few showers and storms may occur into the morning hours, perhaps early this afternoon, that may clip northern portions of the area including the Sheboygan terminal. May see middle to high clouds from storms to the north and northwest move more into the area and may linger into this morning and early afternoon, especially for the Madison and Janesville terminals. Some scattered to broken 4000 to 5000 foot AGL clouds may occur and linger during this time. Light to modest southwest winds are expected today, though south to southeast winds with a lake breeze may occur for terminals close to Lake Michigan. These winds may remain near or east of the terminals close to the lakeshore. Scattered storms should develop along the approaching cold front from middle to later this afternoon to the west of the area, then shifting into the area by early this evening. There remains some uncertainty with the strength of the storms if they arrive in northwest and far northern parts of the area later toward and after sunset. Still, if they arrive earlier, there should be some severe storm potential, with damaging winds the main hazard. Some hail may occur as well. The better chances will be north of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Locally higher winds, along with reduced visibility and ceilings, are possible with any storms. Light and variable winds are expected otherwise. Ceilings may drop to 1000 to 1500 feet AGL later tonight into Thursday morning in northern portions of the area. Locally heavy rainfall may linger later tonight into Thursday morning in northern portions of the area, including the Sheboygan terminal, with additional showers and storms. There may be some showers and storms that develop Thursday afternoon and early evening, as the front sags south through the area. Gusty winds and hail may occur. Winds should gradually shift north to northeast as the front moves southward through the area. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 503 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure around 30.1 inches will shift southeast into the Ohio Valley today. Modest south winds will continue today, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an accompanying cold front approaches from the Northern Great Plains. Modest southwest winds tonight will become north behind the frontal passage Thursday into Thursday night. An area of thunderstorms may move east across northern portions of Lake Michigan this morning. Gusty winds and hail may occur. Scattered thunderstorms are likely at times later this afternoon into this evening, mainly over northern and central portions of the lake, with chances lingering later tonight and spreading southward. A few strong to severe storms are possible, with damaging winds the main hazard along with some hail. There are chances for thunderstorms at times Thursday into early Thursday evening, mainly over southern portions of the lake. A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible Thursday afternoon and early evening. Winds will become north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.1 inches builds into the the region. The high should continue to bring light to modest winds for the weekend. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee