FXUS63 KMKX 090015 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms are possible this evening mainly north of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Damaging winds and large hail are the main hazards. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding may occur in the same areas. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again Thursday afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and small hail may occur. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Shower/storm chances will persist into this evening, largely along and north of I-94. Decent instability and marginal shear will keep the chance going for a severe storm or two through late evening, with strong winds the main concern along with locally heavy rainfall. A chance for showers and a few storms will continue into tonight as deep moisture lingers and a shortwave slowly moves through. Latest short term models have generally backed off on coverage of showers/storms after midnight, though. May need to trend precip chances downward the second half of the night if radar trends match what models are showing. DDV && .SHORT TERM... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday: An outflow boundary continues to trigger showers over Racine County early this afternoon with likely some development for Kenosha County soon. Otherwise a cluster of storms is moving ewd across far nrn IA and adjacent MN. This area of storms has developed in a region of weak warm, moist advection and on the srn periphery of a vorticity maximum that stretches from central WI into se MN. Additional showers and storms are currently developing over central WI as well. Expect convection to grow in coverage and intensity the remainder of the afternoon over the aforementioned areas as MLCAPE builds to 1500-2000 J/KG. Effective shear will range from 30-40 kts over central WI but decreasing to 20 kts over srn WI with a lessening of overall shear toward the early evening. Nevertheless, enough CAPE and storm organization will support a decent potential for severe thunderstorms for a time toward central WI. For later in the evening and overnight, more of a locally heavy rain and urban and small stream flood potential will exist. This is supported by a wly 25 kt low level jet and associated thetae advection within the thermal ridge and the approaching weak shortwave trough from the nw. This is in conjunction with PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches and weak corfidi vectors. The CAMs and model QPF suggest the flood threat should remain isolated. Ongoing scattered storms and additional storms are then expected on Thu with the passage of the cold front and shortwave trough. Only marginal CAPE is expected with rather weak effective shear continuing. Thus the severe threat will be very low as well as an isolated heavy rain threat. Nely winds will bring a slightly cooler and drier airmass for Friday as high pressure builds from the nrn Great Lakes into WI. Seasonal temps and humidity is forecast. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Saturday through Wednesday: Primarily dry weather is predicted this weekend through the middle of next week. An upper-level ridge building over the Plains and moving toward the Great Lakes region this weekend with high geopotential height values alongside a surface high pressure system are likely to persist during this period. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 80s range, increasing into the low 90s next week. Zawlocki/Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Shower/storm chances will persist into this evening, largelyalong and north of I-94. Decent instability and marginal shear will keep the chance going for a severe storm or two through late evening, with strong winds the main concern along with locally heavy rainfall. A chance for showers and a few storms will continue into tonight as deep moisture lingers and a shortwave slowly moves through. Latest short term models have generally backed off on coverage of showers/storms after midnight, though. May need to trend precip chances downward the second half of the night if radar trends match what models are showing. An additional round of showers and storms will be possible tomorrow, particulary during the afternoon hours as the surface trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with any stronger storms. A round of MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into Thursday morning, particularly northwest of a line from Monroe to Port Washington, with mainly VFR conditions returning for the afternoon hours. Winds will largely be light and variable tonight, becoming westerly Thursday morning and shifting to the north from north to south during the afternoon as the surface trough drops southward. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure around 30.1 inches will remain over the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Modest south winds will continue today, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an accompanying cold front approaches from Upper Michigan and northwest Wisconsin. Light to modest southerly winds tonight will become north behind the frontal passage Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will become north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.1 inches builds into the the region. The high should continue to bring light to modest winds for the weekend. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee