FXUS63 KMKX 090515
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again Thursday
  afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and small hail may
  occur along with locally heavy rainfall.
  
- Hot and muggy conditions return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Tonight through Thursday

Isolated showers and storms are possible tonight into early 
Thursday as instability and plenty of moisture linger while a 
shortwave moves through. Models have backed off on overall
precip coverage for tonight, so bumped precip chances down to
the 20-40 percent range. Clouds and dewpoints in the upper 60s
to around 70 will keep temps from falling much more the 
remainder of the night. 

Could see some redevelopment of storms by Thursday afternoon as
a surface trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Still wouldn't
be surprised by a stronger storm or two producing some small hail
and gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible with any slow moving stronger
storms. Went with high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s 
tomorrow given the surface trough dropping through, plenty of 
clouds, and shower/storm chances. It will be a humid day again,
with dewpoints lingering around 70. 

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Friday through Wednesday:

Mainly dry weather is likely from Friday into early next week as
an upper ridge builds in and surface high pressure largely sits
over the region. Not out of the question to see a few storms
sneak over the top of the ridge into southern Wisconsin as the 
ridge moves in late this week and begins to flatten by mid-week 
next week. Overall though, dry weather should prevail much of 
the time along with increasing temperatures this weekend into 
early next week. Highs around 90 are possible Monday through
Wednesday. Dewpoints will in the mid 60s to around 70 will be a
little lower than the last stretch of 90+ degree temps, which
should keep heat afternoon heat indices from reaching the 100
degree mark. Currently expecting the heat index to top out in
the 90-95 degree range Mon-Wed.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A chance for showers and a few storms will continue into 
tonight as deep moisture lingers and a shortwave slowly moves 
through. Models are still trending toward isolated coverage 
overnight, so lowered the precip chances a bit. 

An additional round of showers and storms will be possible
tomorrow, particulary during the afternoon hours as the surface
trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Gusty winds and small 
hail will be possible with any stronger storms. 

A round of MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into
Thursday morning, particularly northwest of a line from Monroe 
to Port Washington, with mainly VFR conditions returning for the
afternoon hours. Winds will largely be light and variable
tonight, becoming westerly Thursday morning and shifting to the
north from north to south during the afternoon as the surface
trough drops southward. 

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

High pressure around 30.0 inches will remain over the Ohio 
River Valley through tonight. Light south winds will continue 
tonight, as weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an 
accompanying cold front approaches from Upper Michigan and 
northwest Wisconsin. Light winds will become north behind the 
frontal passage Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will become 
north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.0 
inches builds into the the region from the northwest. The high 
should continueto bring light to modest winds for the weekend.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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