FXUS63 KMKX 091023 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 523 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are expected at times into this evening. Gusty winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall are possible in any stronger storms. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 523 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Weak 925 mb frontogenesis near the slow-moving cold front, along with weak low level warm air advection continues to bring scattered showers and a few storms through the area early this morning. This activity should continue at times today into this evening, as the cold front slowly sags southward through the area. CAMs are generally showing a peak in this activity from middle afternoon into early this evening, with the better chances toward the Wisconsin and Illinois border area. Forecast soundings are showing 1000 to 1500 J/kg of mean layer CAPE this afternoon, with around 20 knots of deep layer bulk shear. This should support gusty winds and small hail with any stronger storms this afternoon and early evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, with precipitable water values remaining relatively high this morning into this afternoon and fairly slow movement of any showers and storms. Stay weather aware into this evening if you have any outdoor plans. This activity should weaken by later this evening and overnight, with some fog possible as northeast winds behind the front bring in some moisture off of Lake Michigan. Patchy dense fog may occur later tonight into Friday morning, with the better chances closer to Lake Michigan. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Tonight through Thursday Isolated showers and storms are possible tonight into early Thursday as instability and plenty of moisture linger while a shortwave moves through. Models have backed off on overall precip coverage for tonight, so bumped precip chances down to the 20-40 percent range. Clouds and dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 will keep temps from falling much more the remainder of the night. Could see some redevelopment of storms by Thursday afternoon as a surface trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Still wouldn't be surprised by a stronger storm or two producing some small hail and gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any slow moving stronger storms. Went with high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s tomorrow given the surface trough dropping through, plenty of clouds, and shower/storm chances. It will be a humid day again, with dewpoints lingering around 70. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Friday through Wednesday: Mainly dry weather is likely from Friday into early next week as an upper ridge builds in and surface high pressure largely sits over the region. Not out of the question to see a few storms sneak over the top of the ridge into southern Wisconsin as the ridge moves in late this week and begins to flatten by mid-week next week. Overall though, dry weather should prevail much of the time along with increasing temperatures this weekend into early next week. Highs around 90 are possible Monday through Wednesday. Dewpoints will in the mid 60s to around 70 will be a little lower than the last stretch of 90+ degree temps, which should keep heat afternoon heat indices from reaching the 100 degree mark. Currently expecting the heat index to top out in the 90-95 degree range Mon-Wed. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 523 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and a few storms should continue to move through the area at times today into this evening, as the weakcold front slowly sags southward through the area. A peak in this activity from middle afternoon into early this evening looks reasonable, with the better chances fro terminals toward the Wisconsin and Illinois border area. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with any stronger storms this afternoon and early evening. Locally reduced ceiling and visibility values may occur with any storms. Some lower ceilings from 800 to 1800 feet AGL may move through northern portions of the area this morning, perhaps including the Sheboygan and Madison terminals. These should rise to above 3500 feet AGL this afternoon. This activity should weaken by later this evening and overnight, with some 1 to 5 mile visibility fog possible as northeast winds behind the front bring in some moisture off of Lake Michigan. Patchy dense fog may occur later tonight into Friday morning, with the better chances for terminals closer to Lake Michigan. Low ceilings of 1000 to 1500 feet AGL, perhaps lower, may occur as well for the terminals near the lakeshore later tonight into Friday morning. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 523 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light south winds will become north to northeast behind a cold front moving southward across the lake today into tonight. Some fog may develop at times during this period, with patchy dense fog possible into Friday morning, as warm air remains over the cooler lake waters. Winds will remain north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.0 inches builds into the the region from the north. The high should shift southeast over the weekend, which should continue to bring light to modest winds. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee