FXUS63 KMKX 160120 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 820 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph Friday especially along the lakeshore, with higher gale force conditions likely over Lake Michigan. - A waterspout or two will be possible over Lake Michigan Friday into Friday night. - Colder end to the week with overnight temps trending to around or below freezing for Friday night into Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued 820 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main round of rain just exited southeast WI. Some light showers and drizzle will be possible through the rest of the evening (and Friday), but the majority of the rain is done. After a lull in the winds through late evening, gusty northwest winds (gusts up to 25 mph) will develop. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tonight through Friday night: Widespread rain will continue into this evening, as surface low pressure clips the southeast forecast area ahead of a strong approaching trough. It still looks like the northwest half of the forecast area will wind up with the higher rainfall totals given the low track, with upstream radar adding confidence to this scenario. Rain chances will be lower overnight tonight into early Friday morning as the surface low pulls away, with scattered showers then expected by mid-Friday morning and into the afternoon as the strong trough swings through. Blustery north winds are expected by Friday afternoon behind the trough. Gusts to 30 knots are likely, with a few gusts to 35 knots possible towards Lake Michigan. High temperatures tomorrow will will be well below normal, only rising to about 50 by the afternoon. Decreasing clouds and winds Friday night will allow for temps to drop quite a bit, as the colder airmass behind the departing system continues to settle into the area. Overnight lows may drop below 30 across much of the southern Wisconsin away from Lake Michigan. A Freeze Watch is in effect for these areas. At the very minimum, most (if not all) locations across the forecast area will likely see a round of frost. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Saturday through Thursday: High pressure is expected to largely be in place across the region this weekend into the middle of next week. A prolonged period of mainly dry weather is thus likely during this period. Temperatures should gradually warm over the span of these few days, as southerly low level winds develop while upper level ridging nudges into the area. Above normal temps are likely by mid-week. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 820 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The LIFR ceilings with bases around 400 ft AGL are pretty widespread across southern WI this evening. The steadier rain just moved out of southeast WI. We can expect drizzle and light rain showers to be possible through the rest of the night and into Friday, but ceilings should be in the IFR category. We are in a lull with the winds right now, but winds will quickly increase out of the northwest around midnight. Blustery northwest winds will persist through the day Friday, with an uptick in the gusts during the late afternoon and early evening. Look for ceilings to improve to VFR Friday afternoon and clouds will diminish in coverage during the evening. Winds will diminish overnight. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Two areas of low pressure are progged to merge over the Great Lakes region into a single low pressure later today into tonight and deepen to around 29.4 inches as it shifts into the eastern Great Lakes through Friday. Expect a northerly wind shift to ramp up and increase to gales andnearing storm force at times Friday on the backside of the departing low pressure while a strong high pressure around 30.7 inches builds to the west. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the open waters of Lake Michigan Friday morning into Friday night. Widespread rain is expected this afternoon into tonight, with a few thunderstorms possible over the southern open waters. Lake effect showers & a few thunderstorms may linger into Friday along the back side of departing low pressure. A few waterspouts are possible in the Friday showers/thunderstorms, particularly over the southern half of Lake Michigan. As the high sinks toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.0 inches will develop in northern Manitoba through the weekend. The tight pressure gradient may bring southwest gales to Lake Michigan on Sunday. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM Saturday to 9 AM Saturday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday. Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee