FXUS62 KMLB 081725 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the interior. For more information on HeatRisk and heat safety, please visit heat.gov. - A Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today where peak heat index values are forecast to reach up to 109F. - Building dry air will reduce rain chances through the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today-Thursday... Noticeably lower rain chances are forecast mid week as waves of drier air pass through the mid levels. Isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms today (10-30%) trend mostly dry on Thursday. However, there is low confidence in an isolated shower (~20%) near and north of the Orlando metro Thursday where a thin ribbon of deeper moisture may be present. As rain chances are reduced, the greatest forecast emphasis shifts towards a period of increasing heat as high pressure builds over the region. Above normal temperatures will be greatest across interior areas near and north of I-4 each day ranging the mid to upper 90s today, and more widely spreading the upper 90s by Thursday. Across the southern interior, highs mostly range the mid 90s with low to mid 90s spreading the coast. Peak heat index values are forecast to top out around 105-107F across the north today, but higher peak heat index values up to 109F are forecast across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties from 11AM to 6PM today. Cannot rule out additional Heat Advisories across portions of east central Florida on Thursday. Warm conditions will persist after sunset and into the evenings with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s through midnight. Overnight lows mostly range the mid to upper 70s. Friday-Tuesday... High pressure continues to control the local weather pattern, keeping a period of above normal temperatures through the weekend. Expect only small variations in afternoon highs each day with the hottest conditions persisting across interior regions near and north of I-4 (upper 90s) through at least Saturday. Elsewhere, mid 90s continue with a few areas of low 90s along portions of the immediate coast. The abnormally hot pattern begins to slowly breakdown early next week as a mid to upper level trough digs into the eastern U.S., and highs are nudged closer to normal values by Tuesday. Heat index values exceeding 108F will continue to be monitored with the potential for Heat Advisories across portions of the area into the back half of the week. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Despite surges of locally higher PWATs, model soundings suggest a layer of drier air continuing through the mid levels. This should generally help to suppress rain chances again on Friday, and NBM PoPs have trended down over the last few forecast packages, now showing only a 20-30% PoP in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. By Saturday a weak mid level disturbance lifts across south Florida, weakening as it approaches portions of central Florida. Currently keeping NBM PoPs (30-60%) Saturday with the highest coverage south, but will note high uncertainty as global ensemble members show high spread. A better chance to see scattered showers and storms could be by early next week as the influence of high pressure begins to break down aloft. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 An axis of highpressure over the local Atlantic waters will maintain southerly winds and favorable boating conditions. Light south to southwest winds shift south to southeast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Late afternoon and evening winds may increase to 14-18 kts over the open Atlantic (generally north of the Cape). Seas hold mostly 2-3 ft through late week, occasionally building to 4 ft well offshore north of the Cape. Drier air will keep lower rain chances across the local waters the next few days with isolated to scattered showers and storms returning this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A band of deeper moisture across north central FL is already leading to isolated storm development north of KMCO, near KSFB and KDAB. Should see at least scattered coverage of showers and storms, mainly north and inland of KMLB through this afternoon and evening as sea breeze boundaries push inland and collide. Continued VCTS for sites from KMLB northward, but also added TEMPO groups for MVFR TSRA impacts for inland TAF sites eastward toward KDAB and KTIX where best storm potential exists. Storms will diminish in coverage through the evening hours, with dry conditions overnight. Looks even drier into tomorrow, with low shower and storms chances (10-20%) near to north of KMCO in the afternoon/early evening on Thursday. Winds will be somewhat light and variable, becoming E/SE around 10 knots along the coast with the east coast sea breeze. Winds then decrease and become light and variable once again overnight through Thursday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 8 July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 98 (1981) 97 (2022) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 98 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (1969) 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 100 (1908) 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 97 (1998) 96 (2023) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 98 (2024) 96 (2024) 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 97 (2024) 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 95 77 94 / 30 20 20 10 MCO 78 97 77 97 / 20 10 10 20 MLB 78 93 78 92 / 10 0 0 10 VRB 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 79 96 79 96 / 20 20 20 10 SFB 78 97 77 97 / 20 20 20 20 ORL 78 96 78 96 / 20 10 10 20 FPR 76 93 76 92 / 10 10 0 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164- 254-259-264. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Weitlich