FXUS62 KMLB 091856 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida through 8 PM this evening for peak afternoon heat indices up to 110F. - Hot through Saturday, especially across the north where high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices around to just under Heat Advisory criteria (108-112 degrees), with widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts. - Below normal rain chances 40 percent or less continue through Friday, then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30 to 60 percent from the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure across the southern US will remain in place through the day. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will will slowly lift its axis from south Florida to north Florida through the day. This will result in light and variable winds across east central Florida. The east coast sea breeze has formed already this afternoon and is slowly pushing inland this afternoon. The west coast sea breeze is slightly favored over the east coast sea breeze (except from Cape Canaveral southward), with the collision forecast to occur across the interior into this evening. Drier air continues to filter across the area today, with PW values ranging from 1.5-1.7" south of the I-4 corridor, and 1.8-2.1" northward. This will suppress the overall rain chances today, with 20 percent chance for showers and storms from the Orlando Metro to the Cape northward (with the sea breeze collision being the primary focus) late this afternoon and into this evening (generally after 6pm). The environment will support showers and storms, with forecast models showing ample instability (MUCAPE 2500+j/kg), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE ~800 J/kg) which could be aided by the drier air aloft. The main storm hazards today will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph (with a very low chance for locally high winds to 60 mph), and torrential downpours. Very hot today with a few locations near daily record highs (see climate section below). Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, with peak heat indices near to above 108F, up to 110F along the I-95 corridor in Volusia, Brevard, and adjacent portions of inland counties. Widespread Major with areas of Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida through 8 PM this evening. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C or shade if you feel unwell. Friday-Saturday... Upper level high pressure across the southern US will expand to the central US by Saturday. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic, with its axis extending over the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf, will stay in place through the period. Locally, this will result in south to southeasterly flow continuing through early weekend. Higher moisture will filter across the south (PW values around 2.0" across the south and 1.7-1.8" across the north) on Friday, before the higher moisture spreads across much of ECFL on Saturday (PW values 1.8-2.1"). There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and lightning storms on Friday, with the highest chances occurring around Lake Okeechobee, and a medium (40-60 percent) chance of showers and storms areawide on Saturday. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-55mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 90s each day. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees. While these temperatures are just below Heat Advisory criteria, it is very close. So will continue to closely monitor these values, and a Heat Advisory may be needed this weekend. Regardless on if a Heat Advisory is issued, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast both days. Sunday-Wednesday... Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate across the Southern and central US through midweek, despite a trough moving into the NE US by mid week. At the surface, the high pressure across the Florida peninsula and the Deep South will weaken into early to mid week as a trough builds from the NE US down across the eastern seaboard and a weak associated front will move into the Deep South. This will result in some relief from the above normal heat across Florida. Forecast soundings show some drier air, PW 1.6- 1.7", will filter across the area from the south by early week. Despite the drier air, upper level support from the aforementioned trough and the associated front as well as moisture along the front will support near to slightly above normal rain chances across east central Florida next week. Higher cloud cover will help slightly with temperatures, with afternoon highs at or slightly above normal. Peak heat indices will be 102-107 degrees each day, with widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk impacts forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions through early next week as high pressure remains in control. South to southwest winds today will shift southwest to southeast on Friday and Saturday, before becoming south to to southwest once again by early next week. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each day, backing the winds south to southeast behind the breeze in the afternoon and early evening. Winds speeds will generally be 5-15KT, occasionally reaching over 15 KT from the Cape northward overnight. Seas will be 1-3 feet. There is low (20 percent) chances for showers and lightning storms through Friday, then chances increase closer to normal (30-60%) through the weekend into early next week, starting near the coast Saturday and Sunday, then expanding into the offshore waters by early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Drier air and ridge aloft will keep shower and storm coverage limited today, with PoPs this afternoon and evening only around 20% north and inland of KMLB. Have therefore kept only VCTS mentioned from 21-01Z for most of these sites, except 20-00Z at KLEE and 21-02Z for KDAB/KTIX. Will continue to monitor trends if any TEMPO groups for TSRA IFR/MVFR impacts are expected. Any convection that develops will diminish into late evening, with dry conditions forecast overnight. Winds will be rather light and variable around 4-6kt, except behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze with winds picking up out of the E/SE around 10-13 knots. Winds then diminish overnight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 97 (2022) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 96 (2023) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 96 (2024) 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 7795 77 95 / 20 10 10 30 MCO 77 98 77 97 / 20 20 10 60 MLB 77 92 78 92 / 10 10 10 50 VRB 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 50 LEE 79 97 79 96 / 20 20 20 40 SFB 77 97 77 97 / 20 10 10 50 ORL 78 97 78 96 / 20 10 10 50 FPR 76 92 77 92 / 0 10 10 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Weitlich